Volatility's Role in MSR Valuation
FAS 133 hedge accounting and flourishing mortgage origination
have forced mortgage servicers to pay unprecedented attention to systematic
valuation of mortgage servicing rights (MSR). "Traditionalists"
of the MSR world continue to claim that these instruments are still
commonly priced via simple static valuation. This idea is often proliferated
because the benefits of an option adjusted valuation methodology that
properly takes volatility into consideration are currently not fully
recognized. However, does a purely static valuation actually exist?
Guess the yield!
The mortgage-refinancing curve has an S-like shape - it gradually
saturates when the refinancing incentive becomes too large or too
small. If an IO or a MSR is taken off a high-premium pool, its price
exhibits positive convexity because the life of the collateral can
extend (if rates rise) but can barely be further contracted (if rates
fall). The value of this IO is, therefore, higher when measured in
a volatile market than would normally be seen in a static world. To
replicate this effect using the static valuation method, the yield
should be artificially lowered - in order to compensate for overlooked
positive convexity. Similarly, IOs and MSRs stripped off a deeply
discounted pool will exhibit negative convexity and can be correctly
valued using only a relatively high yield in a static valuation formula.
The variability in the yield of IOs, as shown in the chart below,
suggests that only someone possessing a magical talent in guessing
the yield can value widely traded market IOs using the static valuation
method.