Valuation Commentary

Treating
MBS settlement rigorously: AD&Co's OAS version 5.2
by Alex Levin
Recently we
have been discussing ValueNet, our new backward induction system
for MBS pricing. At the same time, AD&Co remains committed to
further elevate the rigor of our "traditional" OAS application.
Results of this work is version 5.2 that is still in a Beta-stage,
but nevertheless has already become a better option than 5.1x. Among
several enhancements, the new version now supports settlement conditions
with both "trading on balance" (TBA) and "trading on
factor" (non-TBA). For the latter case, the system recognizes
differences in delivery balances for various rate paths and includes
"balance delivery" option into valuation. A rare system
does this. Read
more...

Model Performance Review
by
Dan Szakallas
Prepayments
decreased again from May to June as rates rose steadily from mid-May
into June. The sharpest drops were seen in the 5.5's and 6.0's for
FNMA 30's, and in the 5.0's for the FNMA 15's. Somewhat surprisingly,
speeds on GNMA's dropped no more than 10% in any of the coupons
listed. In fact, GNMA 5.0's remained almost unchanged from May to
June. Actual pool CPR speeds of selected coupon buckets, along with
corresponding model forecasts, can be seen in the table below.
Read
more...

AD&Co. Update
The
Pipeline Archives
The Pipeline
is about to enter its third year of publication. The wealth of information
contained in its electronic pages has now been indexed and categorized
to provide our clients with easy access to this content by issue
or topic.
In this monthly
publication, we have tried to provide you with topical insights
into the risk management and valuation of structured products. Most
issues contain an article from one of our consultants that provides
lessons garnered from recently completed projects in the Consulting
Corner. The Valuation Commentary section provides detailed analysis
of relative value in the MBS and ABS markets and also provides a
forum for more in-depth discussion about how our models can be applied
to risk management and valuation problems. The Model Performance
Review provides a critical review of the actual versus forecasted
performance of our prepayment models.
To view an overview
of the articles contained in each issue, click on The Pipeline Archives
"View by issue" tab on the home page of our website. This
will take you to an overview of each issue organized by year and
month of publication. To read a specific article from one of these
issues, simply click on the link to the issue and scroll down to
the article of interest.
To view an overview
of the articles by subject matter, click on The Pipeline Archives
"View by Topic" tab on the home page of our website. This
will take you to an overview of the articles organized by broad
subject matter. To access a specific article, simply click on the
link to the article of interest and you will be taken directly to
the piece.
The Pipeline Archives chronicles the lessons and insights AD&Co's
consultants and analysts have garnered about the problems and challenges
facing our clients. Use these archives to make sure you stay abreast
of this invaluable information.
