July 30, 2004
Welcome to The Pipeline, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.'s monthly newsletter. Created as a "pipeline" of relevant and useful information for participants in the fixed income industry, we address recent trends, changes and advances that our consultants, developers and sales force have extensively studied. We value your input and urge you to contact us with questions, comments or article suggestions. Enjoy!

 
 
Valuation Commentary

Model Performance Review

AD&Co. Update

 

 

Valuation Commentary

Treating MBS settlement rigorously: AD&Co's OAS version 5.2
by Alex Levin

Recently we have been discussing ValueNet, our new backward induction system for MBS pricing. At the same time, AD&Co remains committed to further elevate the rigor of our "traditional" OAS application. Results of this work is version 5.2 that is still in a Beta-stage, but nevertheless has already become a better option than 5.1x. Among several enhancements, the new version now supports settlement conditions with both "trading on balance" (TBA) and "trading on factor" (non-TBA). For the latter case, the system recognizes differences in delivery balances for various rate paths and includes "balance delivery" option into valuation. A rare system does this. Read more...

Model Performance Review

by Dan Szakallas

Prepayments decreased again from May to June as rates rose steadily from mid-May into June. The sharpest drops were seen in the 5.5's and 6.0's for FNMA 30's, and in the 5.0's for the FNMA 15's. Somewhat surprisingly, speeds on GNMA's dropped no more than 10% in any of the coupons listed. In fact, GNMA 5.0's remained almost unchanged from May to June. Actual pool CPR speeds of selected coupon buckets, along with corresponding model forecasts, can be seen in the table below. Read more...


AD&Co. Update

The Pipeline Archives

The Pipeline is about to enter its third year of publication. The wealth of information contained in its electronic pages has now been indexed and categorized to provide our clients with easy access to this content by issue or topic.

In this monthly publication, we have tried to provide you with topical insights into the risk management and valuation of structured products. Most issues contain an article from one of our consultants that provides lessons garnered from recently completed projects in the Consulting Corner. The Valuation Commentary section provides detailed analysis of relative value in the MBS and ABS markets and also provides a forum for more in-depth discussion about how our models can be applied to risk management and valuation problems. The Model Performance Review provides a critical review of the actual versus forecasted performance of our prepayment models.

To view an overview of the articles contained in each issue, click on The Pipeline Archives "View by issue" tab on the home page of our website. This will take you to an overview of each issue organized by year and month of publication. To read a specific article from one of these issues, simply click on the link to the issue and scroll down to the article of interest.

To view an overview of the articles by subject matter, click on The Pipeline Archives "View by Topic" tab on the home page of our website. This will take you to an overview of the articles organized by broad subject matter. To access a specific article, simply click on the link to the article of interest and you will be taken directly to the piece.


The Pipeline Archives chronicles the lessons and insights AD&Co's consultants and analysts have garnered about the problems and challenges facing our clients. Use these archives to make sure you stay abreast of this invaluable information.


                               


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