impacted by the use of different models. For example, for a pass through,
use of a normal model would show shorter effective durations than would
a lognormal model, by about 0.5 year.
As related to the above discussion on volatility assumptions, it is
important to understand that different interest rate models use different
forms of volatility assumptions. Whereas, when using the Black-Karasinski
model, one might use a relative volatility assumption like 30% and mean
reversion of 3%; in using the Hull-White Model, one would use an absolute
volatility assumption of 139 basis points and 3.8% mean reversion. Consistency
across assumptions and analyses is another issue to be considered when
reviewing systems and reports.
These are just two examples of assumptions that have been impacted
significantly with changes in the market environment. In any given system
used for investment or risk management, there are numerous assumptions
that must be made and set to generate specific analyses. If those assumptions
are not reviewed and updated on a periodic basis, it becomes a matter
of that well-known acronym, GIGO = Garbage In, Garbage Out.
This is just one component of what should be a broader oversight initiative/responsibility
- periodic reviews of investment technology and its applicability to
investment objectives. It is recommended that systems and any related
analyses and reports generated be evaluated for currency and relevance
on some regular basis.
