Step two involves certifying that non-residual bond interest payments
are correct. Bond interest payments can be tested in a spreadsheet by
dividing them by their respective bond balances, converting them to
annual coupon rates and comparing them against the coupon rate time
series. Bond coupon rates should be verified as part of this process.
The third step is testing the accuracy of bond principal payments.
If collateral cash flows are correct, the amounts of monthly bond principal
payments are a function of each bond's principal balance and complex
bond payment logic that parses collateral cash flows into bond principal
payments and payments to the residual class. It is easiest to leave
the validation of bond payment logic to last and first check that each
bond's principal balance is correct. This method confirms that the amount
of principal paid to each bond over its life does not exceed its principal
balance.
At this point the monthly collateral cash flow, non-residual bond interest
payments and the cumulative amounts of principal distributed to non-residual
bonds have been verified. Step four requires checking that the residual
cash flows projected equal the monthly collateral cash flow less the
sum of non-residual bond interest and principal payments. If this is
correct, the most likely source of residual cash flow forecasting errors
that remains is the misallocation of principal amongst the various bond
classes, or the misallocation of excess cash flow between principal
payments to the non-residual class bonds and payments to the residual
class.
Testing for these cash flow "allocation" errors requires
an in depth understanding of the complex bond payment logic contained
in the bond offering documents. In general, there is no substitute for
a detailed understanding and testing of the bond payment logic and the
conditional factors governing the amounts and timing of residual cash
flows, such as the over collateralization requirements, delinquency
and loss triggers. However, insight into the accuracy with which collateral
cash flow is split between bond principal payments and payments to the
residual class can be gained by (1) analyzing the sequence of principal
payments projected for the non-residual classes of bonds, (2) verifying
that over collateralization accumulates toward its targets correctly,
and (3) analyzing the pattern of payments to the residual holder.
Summary
Testing the accuracy of residual cash flows is time consuming because
residual cash flow projections result from the interaction of numerous
variables representing collateral and bond indicative data, fair value
assumptions and bond payment logic. An organized approach to validating
residual cash flows can help eliminate the most likely sources of error
and minimize the time required to do so. A testing approach that focuses
on verifying residual cash flow by deduction is one example of such
an approach.