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Quantitative Perspectives

Quantitative Perspectives (QP) is an Independent Commentary that Examines Topical Issues Related to the Mortgage and Derivatives Markets.

"We use proprietary quantitative tools and sophisticated analytical systems to identify and develop trading and investment strategies."

Quantitative Perspectives Library by Subjects

Prepayment Models FLUX
Option-Adjusted Collateralized Mortgage Obligations
Spread Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Real Estate Investment Trust
Value-at-Risk Cost of Funds
Servicing General Commentary
Valuation  

Quantitative Perspectives (issues by subject)





Prepayment Models Issue Date
Fixed-Rate Agency MBS Prepayments & Model Enhancements 01-May-06
Fixed-Rate Home Equity Loan Prepayment Model 15-Sept-05
Divide & Conquer: Exploring New OAS Horizons, Part III: A prOAS Valuation model with Refinancing & Turnover Risk 17-June-04
Divide & Conquer: Exploring New OAS Horizons, Part II A Prepay Risk-and-Option-Adjusted Valuation Concept 15-Mar-04
Divide & Conquer: Exploring New OAS Horizons, Part I Active-Passive Decomposition 22-Oct-03
Interest Rate Modeling: A Conscientious Choice 26-Sept-02
Residential Jumbo Loan Level Prepayment Model 27-June-02
Hybrid ARM Prepayment Model 27-Mar-02
Home Price & Prepayments: The New Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. Prepayment Model 31-July-01
An Implied Prepayment Model for MBS 24-Jan-01
A Lattice Implemetation of the Black-Karasinski Rate Process 15-June-00
Home Equity Loan Prepayment Model 01-May-99
Fixed Rate Mortgage Prepayment Model 01-Mar-99
The ARM Prepayment Model 01-Feb-99
Evaluating the Refi Boom 16-Jun-98
New Prepayment Model: Auto Loans 09-Jun-98
Prepayment Model Performance Report 05-May-98
The Potential for Refinance Activity Revisited 07-Apr-98
A Study of COFI ARM Prepayments 31-Mar-98
New Prepayment Model - Mobile Homes 24-Mar-98
A Study of GNMA ARM Prepayments 24-Feb-98
High WAC Loans and Prepayment Behavior 20-Jan-98
Prepayment Model Performance Report 02-Dec-97
The Potential for Refinance Activity 30-Sep-97
Prepayment Rates and the Bloomberg Median 23-Sep-97
The New Fixed-Rate Mortgage Prepayment Model 17-Jun-97
The Effect of Points on Mortgage Prepayments 10-Jun-97
Issues in Prepayment Modeling of B/C Mortgages 20-May-97
Prepayment Model Performance Report 25-Mar-97
Revised Prepayment Model Parameters 25-Feb-97
Prepayment Model for Adjustable Rate Mortgages 04-Feb-97
Prepayment Model for Relocation Loans 10-Dec-96
Modeling Prepayments Using Hazard Functions: A Discussion 22-Oct-96
Evaluating Prepayments on Whole Loans vs. Agencies 11-Jun-96
Sensitivity to Tuning of Prepayment Model 07-May-96
Choosing Prepayment Assumptions As Rates Change 09-Apr-96
Potential Prepayment Whipsaw and Impact on CMOs 19-Mar-96
Prepayment Modeling and Burnout 16-Jan-96
The Well-Tempered Prepayment Model 19-Dec-95
Potential Prepayment Surge: A Repeat of 1993? 28-Nov-95
New Prepayment Model Parameters 01-Aug-95
Impact of Prepayment Responsiveness to Rate Changes 25-Jul-95
Our Prepayment Model Now on Bloomberg! 23-May-95
Prepayments of Balloons: Analyzing the Data 04-Apr-95
Effects of Burnout on Risk of Premium Collateral 14-Mar-95
Using Appropriate Prepayment Forecasts 28-Feb-95
Prepayment Modeling: Our Approach 26-Jul-94
Model Parameters and MBS Value 12-Apr-94
ARM Prepayments 01-Mar-94
How To Use PSAs: Don't! 05-Oct-93

Option-Adjusted Spread Issue Date
The Relationship between the Yield Curve & Mortgage Current Coupon 17-Apr-01
Value and Risk Metrics in Quantitative Analysis 29-Jul-98
Creating the Full Yield Curve 15-Jul-98
Convexity in OAS-Based Pricing 07-Oct-97
How P/E Multiples Drive Option-Adjusted Spreads 26-Aug-97
Value and Risk Metrics in Quantitative Analysis 19-Aug-97
Effect of Prepayment Model Changes on OAS 15-Jul-97
COFI Talk! - OAS for COFI ARMS 01-Jul-97
Duration Drift 03-Jun-97
Partial and Prepayment Duration Hedging 27-May-97
OAS Based Pricing of Inverse Floaters 01-Apr-97
OAS All Day, Every Day 18-Mar-97
Prepayment Duration: A Refined Approach 21-Jan-97
A Comparative Look at Mean Reversion in Term Structure Models 26-Nov-96
Partial Duration Analysis of Mortgage Servicing 19-Nov-96
Partial Durations: Forward or Spot 29-Oct-96
Adding Convexity: Writing MBS calls and Selling Treasury Calls 15-Oct-96
Carry vs Convexity: Framework for Relative Value of MBS 24-Sep-96
Constant OAS and Modeling Error 17-Sep-96
Value and Risk Measures Revisited 10-Sep-96
Analysis of Black-Derman-Toy (BDT) Model in OAS Models 09-Jul-96
OAS Trends for Pass-Throughs 25-Jun-96
Sensitivity of Mortgages to Volatility Levels 21-May-96
Comparison of Short Duration Alternatives 14-May-96
Sensitivity to Tuning of Prepayment Model 07-May-96
Key Rate Duration to Measure Curve Risk of ARMs 30-Apr-96
Current Value of IO Strips 26-Mar-96
Relative Value in IO Market: GNMAs vs FNMAs 06-Feb-96
OAS Analysis of Mortgage Servicing and IO Strips 21-Nov-95
Managing Mortgage Duration in Volatile Environments 31-Oct-95
OAS Analysis 03-Oct-95
OAS Analysis of Balloons and Value Implications 15-Aug-95
Key Rate Duration Analysis of ARMs 27-Jun-95
Positive Convexity in Deep Discount Mortgages 07-Feb-95
Duration of COF-Indexed ARMs 18-Oct-94
Value and Risk Measures Revisited 05-Jul-94
Duration Drift of Mortgages 15-Mar-94
Prepayment Convexity 28-Sep-93
OAS for IOs: Tool or Trap 31-Aug-93

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Issue Date
ARM Home Equity Loan Prepayment Model 25-July-00
The ARM Prepayment Model 01-Feb-99
"Not Yet Louis" The Risk/Return of Premium Libor ARMs 26-May-98
Modelling ARM Cash Flows 21-Apr-98
Modeling ARM Cash Flows 17-Mar-98
A Study of GNMA ARM Prepayments 24-Feb-98
The Theoretical Price Profile of ARM REIT Equity 09-Feb-98
The Earnings Profile of ARM REITs 23-Dec-97
Analysis of CMT Indexed ARMs with Libor Funding 18-Nov-97
Looking Back: Interest Rate Changes 05-Aug-97
COFI Talk! - OAS for COFI ARMS 01-Jul-97
Volatility and Cap Values for ARMs 15-Apr-97
Impact of Prepayments on ARM Collars 04-Mar-97
Prepayment Model for Adjustable Rate Mortgages 04-Feb-97
Hedging ARMS with Yield Curve Futures 14-Jan-97
Rate Scenarios Used To Evaluate Arms 24-Dec-96
Update of the ARM Market 17-Dec-96
Current Value in COF-Indexed ARMS 13-Aug-96
Value Comparison of 3/1 and 1/1 ARMS 23-Jul-96
Key Rate Duration to Measure Curve Risk of ARMs 30-Apr-96
Life Caps Exacerbate ARM Price Declines 16-Apr-96
Significance of Life Cap in ARMs 09-Jan-96
ARM Servicing Valuation 07-Nov-95
Effect of Prepayment Volatility on ARM Value 10-Oct-95
ARM Analysis Using Recursive Modeling 19-Sep-95
Current Prepayment Risk of Premium ARMs 18-Jul-95
Key Rate Duration Analysis of ARMs 27-Jun-95
The Impact of Yield Curve Steepening on ARM Pipeline Hedging 02-May-95
Hedging ARMs in the Mortgage Pipeline 18-Apr-95
Differentiating between Option and Non-option Costs in ARMs 11-Apr-95
Hedging ARMs with Path Dependent Collars 07-Mar-95
Evaluating ARMs in an Asset/Liability Framework 14-Feb-95
ARM Value and the Yield Curve 20-Dec-94
Sensitivity of ARM CAPS to Changing Market Conditions 15-Nov-94
Managing ARMs: Income and Market Value Risk 02-Aug-94
ARM Prepayments 01-Mar-94

Value-at-Risk Issue Date
Value at Risk and Mixture Distributions 27-Jan-98
Hedging with VAR 09-Dec-97
Calculating VAR for Brady Bonds 25-Nov-97
Evaluating Mortgages With a VAR Framework 11-Nov-97
Value-At-Risk for the Mortgage Pipeline 12-Aug-97
Tracking Error and Value at Risk 13-May-97
Value at Risk for Investment Portfolios 18-Jun-96

FLUX Issue Date
Special Edition : FLUX 19-Oct-95
FLUX: A Sign of Difficulty 09-May-95
FLUX of Combinations May Understate Risk 25-Oct-94
FLUX for Floaters 16-Aug-94
A Measure of CMO Cash Flow Volatility 19-Oct-93

Valuation Issue Date
Value and Risk Metrics in Quantitative Analysis 29-Jul-98
Creating the Full Yield Curve 15-Jul-98
Modeling ARM Cash Flows 17-Mar-98
Analysis of CMT Indexed ARMs with Libor Funding 18-Nov-97
Convexity in OAS-Based Pricing 07-Oct-97
Value and Risk Metrics in Quantitative Analysis 19-Aug-97
A Comparative Look at Mean Reversion in Term Structure Models 26-Nov-96
Adding Convexity: Writing MBS calls and Selling Treasury Calls 15-Oct-96
Carry vs Convexity: Framework for Relative Value of MBS 24-Sep-96
Value Comparison of 3/1 and 1/1 ARMS 23-Jul-96
Current Value of IO Strips 26-Mar-96
Total Return of Servicing 12-Mar-96
Relative Value in IO Market: GNMAs vs FNMAs 06-Feb-96
Partial Curve Inversion: Implications on Value and Strategy 12-Dec-95
Value of Strips and Curve Shape 14-Nov-95
Effect of Prepayment Volatility on ARM Value 10-Oct-95
Scenario Analysis and Mortgage Servicing Valuation 12-Sep-95
15-Year Pass-Throughs: Our Standard Value and Risk Measures 29-Aug-95
Impact of Recent Shift in Volatility on MBS Value 08-Aug-95
Revisiting Value in Discount FNMAs 21-Feb-95
Value of Discount Pass-throughs 27-Sep-94
MBS Spreads and Relative Value 02-Feb-94

Servicing Issue Date
Decomposing the Value of Servicing Rights 13-Jan-98
The Cost of Not Replacing Servicing 08-Jul-97
Partial Duration Analysis of Mortgage Servicing 19-Nov-96
Reduced Servicing Fee Impact on the Value of Pass-throughs 04-Jun-96
Servicing Securitization: An Experimental Program 23-Apr-96
Total Return of Servicing 12-Mar-96
Hedging Alternatives for Servicing 23-Jan-96
The Effect of Prepayment Float Income on Servicing Value 05-Dec-95
OAS Analysis of Mortgage Servicing and IO Strips 21-Nov-95
ARM Servicing Valuation 07-Nov-95
Mortgage Servicing: The Decison to Retain or Sell 22-Aug-95
Servicing and Production: Quantifying the Natural Hedge 28-Mar-95

Collateralized Mortgage Obligations Issue Date
Potential Prepayment Whipsaw and Impact on CMOs 19-Mar-96
Risk/Return Alternatives in CMO Market 05-Mar-96
Trends in New CMO Issues 27-Feb-96
Inverse IOs and the Effect of Embedded Floors 21-Mar-95
Leveraged CMOs: Price Volatility and Value 19-Jul-94
Performance of Inverse Floaters: Yield Curve Risk 07-Jun-94
Extension Risk of PACs After Recent Whipsaw 22-Mar-94
PAC Windows and Yield Curve Shifts 08-Feb-94
Negative Duration Floaters 18-Jan-94
Leveraging with Inverse IOs 11-Jan-94
Using CPR Vectors to Evaluate Intermediate PACs 14-Dec-93
Short Premium PACs Vulnerable to Curve Flattening 07-Dec-93
Pricing of CMOs for Forward Settlement 30-Nov-93
CMO Floaters: Valuing the Components 02-Nov-93
Value in Broken PACs Backed by Premiums 12-Oct-93
OAS for IOs: Tool or Trap 31-Aug-93

Real Estate Investment Trust Issue Date
Returns on Mutual Funds, Mortgage REITs 22-Jul-98
More On Commercial Mortgage REITs 18-May-98
The Commercial Mortgage Market Rediscovers REITS 14-Apr-98
Market to Book for REIT Stocks 17-Feb-98
The Theoretical Price Profile of ARM REIT Equity 10-Feb-98
The Earnings Profile of ARM REITs 23-Dec-97
Mortgage Debt REITSA 28-Oct-97
Economics of Mortgage REITS 28-Jan-97

Cost of Funds Issue Date
A Study of COFI ARM Prepayments 31-Mar-98
The 11th District Cost of Funds Model 29-Apr-97
Current Value in COF-Indexed ARMS 13-Aug-96
Cost of Funds Index in Transition 13-Feb-96
Trends in the Cost of Funds Index 04-Oct-94

General Commentary Issue Date
Markets Aren't Perfect, Either 01-Jan-99
Fear and Loathing in the MBS Market 30-Jun-98
The GSE's: The Privatization Issue Redux 23-Jun-98
How You Slice It Matters 02-Jun-98
Evaluating the Refi Boom 16-Jun-98
Gorillas in the Mix, Mega Banks & the Mortgage Market 28-Apr-98
The Potential for Refinance Activity Revisited 07-Apr-98
New Questions for the Subprime Market 10-Mar-98
Describing Brady Bonds With Mixture Distributions 03-Mar-98
Risk Based Pricing 04-Feb-98
High WAC Loans and Prepayment Behavior 20-Jan-98
Risk and Return in 1998 06-Jan-98
Turbulence in the Subprime Market 16-Dec-97
The Risk of Brady Bonds 04-Nov-97
Goodbye to the FFIEC Tests for Mortgage Derivatives? 21-Oct-97
Forecasting and Statistical Error 14-Oct-97
The Potential for Refinance Activity 30-Sep-97
FASB's Proposed Accounting for Derivatives and Hedging 16-Sep-97
The Changing Dynamics of Mortgage Lending 09-Sep-97
Looking Back: Interest Rate Changes 05-Aug-97
What is a FASIT? 22-Jul-97
Rising Delinquencies in Subprime Market 24-Jun-97
Risk Management Systems for Money Managers 06-May-97
Benefits of Mortgage Scoring 22-Apr-97
Calibrating Risk Management Systems 08-Apr-97
New Developments in the Sub-Prime Market 11-Mar-97
Labor vs. Capital and Now Talent 18-Feb-97
Fair Value of Low Balance Loans 11-Feb-97
Outlook 1997: From TRR to ROE 07-Jan-97
Debating the Size of the B/C Market 03-Dec-96
A look at S&P New Credit Risk Analysis System 12-Nov-96
Changing Risk Profiles Under Falling Rates 05-Nov-96
Current Environment for Mortgages in Perspective 01-Oct-96
Hedging Jumbo Whole Loans with Agency Securities 27-Aug-96
Risk Comparison: Whole Loans vs. Agencies 20-Aug-96
The Changing Face of the B/C Market 06-Aug-96
Stocks and Bonds 30-Jul-96
Option Hedging Strategy: Rolling Expiration Dates 02-Jul-96
Option Hedging Strategy: Rolling Strikes on Options 28-May-96
Recent Changes in Mortgage Index Characteristics 02-Apr-96
Hedge Ratios for Fixed Rate Pass-Throughs 20-Feb-96
Mortgage Pipeline Hedging Policy 30-Jan-96
Outlook for 1996: Risk Management and the Balance of Power 02-Jan-96
Are Current Coupon Mortgages Cheap 24-Oct-95
Forecasting Current Coupon Mortgage Spreads 17-Oct-95
Leveraging and Hedging with Futures/Forward Markets 26-Sep-95
The Investment Management Technology Audit 11-Jul-95
Current Opportunity: Hedge with Futures 20-Jun-95
Recent Performance of IOs 13-Jun-95
Managing Mortgages on Wall Street 06-Jun-95
Methods for Measuring Portfolio Risk 30-May-95
Mortgage Index: Leading Now But May Lag 16-May-95
Benchmarking Funds and Risk Analysis 25-Apr-95
Interest Rate Risk of Deposits 31-Jan-95
TTIBs: Leveraged Price Volatility vs. Coupon Stability 24-Jan-95
Commercial MBS Defaults and Foreclosures 17-Jan-95
Sensitivity of IO/POs to Curve Twists 10-Jan-95
What's Around the Bend in 1995? 03-Jan-95
Impact of Flatter Curve on Yield Enhancing Strategies 13-Dec-94
Mortgage Pipeline Fallout Study Methodology 06-Dec-94
Wide Amortization Bands Hurt Less 29-Nov-94
What a Difference a Year Makes! 22-Nov-94
The Departure of GEMICO from the Pool Insurance Business 08-Nov-94
Valuing Secondary Market Execution Alternatives 01-Nov-94
Risks in Managing Portfolios to a Target Maturity 11-Oct-94
The Rating of Structured Transactions 20-Sep-94
Capital Budgeting for Financial Institutions 13-Sep-94
Strategies for Deleveraging Mortgage Portfolios 30-Aug-94
Risks of Mismatched Treasury Floaters 23-Aug-94
Commercial MBS: An Introduction 09-Aug-94
An Introduction to MBS Buyups and Buydowns 12-Jul-94
Index Risk of Floaters 28-Jun-94
Average-life of Kitchen Sink Bonds 21-Jun-94
Performance of Scheduled Bonds and PAC IIs 14-Jun-94
Multi-Level Risk in Re-REMICs 24-May-94
What is a Derivative? 17-May-94
Mortgage Returns Poised For Turnaround 10-May-94
Re-Adjusting to a Flatter Yield Curve 03-May-94
Managing IOs: Reinvestment Risk 26-Apr-94
IO Performance: Actual vs Theoretical 19-Apr-94
Managing the Risk of Leveraged Mortgage Portfolios 05-Apr-94
Mortgage Analysis and The Environment 29-Mar-94
MBS Risk: Actual vs. Theoretical 08-Mar-94
Recent Changes in Value of Premium MBS 15-Feb-94
MBS Spreads and Relative Value 02-Feb-94
Hedge Comparison: Mortgage Options Vs Treasury Options 25-Jan-94
Mortgage Market 1994 Outlook 04-Jan-94
S&P Risk Ratings for Bonds Funds 21-Dec-93
Controlling the Curve Risk of MBS 23-Nov-93
Low Rates Trigger Re-Examination of Valuation Tools 16-Nov-93
Shift Analysis Quantifies Curve Risk of Premium MBS 09-Nov-93
How To Use PSAs: Don't! 05-Oct-93
Hedge Value and Risk of Premiums 21-Sep-93
Mortgage Index Under Performance Reexamined 24-Aug-93
Value and Risk Measures Used in Quant. Persp. 17-Aug-93
Analyzing MBS Prepayments: Coupon Difference Vs. Ratio 10-Aug-93

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