The Pipeline

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Welcome to the Pipeline, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.‘s newsletter, a “pipeline” of relevant and useful information, focused on recent trends, changes, and advances in the mortgage investor’s market.

Issue No. 176 | Mar 2022

A CHANGED LANDSCAPE
Eknath Belbase

Much has changed since our last issue of The Pipeline. With the end of QE very near, the Fed is nearing the commencement of monetary tightening, and inflation rather than employment is now the dominant concern. Additionally, geopolitics has changed dramatically, in a way that magnifies uncertainty and opens up potentially stagflationary scenarios in the near and intermediate term.

THE IMPACT OF TRENDED CONSUMER DATA ON MORTGAGE RATES
Sanjeeban Chatterjee, Daniel Swanson, Richard Cooperstein

Making credit assessment more accurate and fairer should be a core value for the mortgage market. While this alone would not fully address the wealth effects of 100 years of housing and mortgage discrimination, it is a necessary step for moving towards a fairer future.

2022 CCAR SCENARIOS: AD&CO’S ANALYTICS AND DATA FILES
Alex Levin, Daniel Swanson

On February 10, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) released two scenarios—Base and Severely Adverse—for the 2022 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). These scenarios describe three-year trajectories based on key economic indicators—of the 28 variables, the ones used by AD&Co’s mortgage models are home price (CoreLogic national HPI); interest rates (3-month, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury, prime index, and mortgage primary rate); and national unemployment.

FLOOD INSURANCE SPIKE IN FLORIDA: EFFECT ON HOME PRICES AND THE ECONOMICS OF LOAN GUARANTEES
Alex Levin

As part of a larger initiative underway at Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) to incorporate the impacts of climate change risks into several of our models and economic analyses, we use inputs from risQ (now part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and hereinafter referred to as ICE) on underinsured flood risk for the state of Florida. Assuming a fair hike in insurance premium, we convert it into a change in the economic cost of borrowing and home price outlook. In search of economic consequences for our industry, we focus on loan guarantees: premium rate and economic capital.

The Pipeline Archive

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Date:
03-2022
Issue:
176
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
03-2022
Issue:
176
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Daniel Swanson
Richard Cooperstein
Date:
03-2022
Issue:
176
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Date:
03-2021
Issue:
175
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
03-2021
Issue:
175
Author:
Daniel Swanson
Date:
03-2021
Issue:
175
Author:
John Gao
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Date:
03-2021
Issue:
175
Author:
Tom Parrent
Date:
12-2020
Issue:
174
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
12-2020
Issue:
174
Author:
Alex Levin
Date:
12-2020
Issue:
174
Author:
Eknath Belbase
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10-2020
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173
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
10-2020
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173
Author:
Chris Widman
Date:
10-2020
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173
Author:
Alex Levin
Date:
08-2020
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172
Author:
Eknath Belbase
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08-2020
Issue:
172
Author:
Daniel Swanson
Date:
08-2020
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172
Author:
Dan Szakallas
Date:
04-2020
Issue:
171
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
04-2020
Issue:
171
Author:
Dan Szakallas
Kevin Atteson
Daniel Swanson
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04-2020
Issue:
171
Author:
Chris Widman
Date:
04-2020
Issue:
171
Author:
Mickey Storms
Richard Cooperstein
Date:
04-2020
Issue:
171
Author:
Alex Levin
Date:
03-2020
Issue:
170
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
03-2020
Issue:
170
Author:
Mickey Storms
Alex Levin
Date:
02-2020
Issue:
169
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
02-2020
Issue:
169
Author:
Chris Widman
Date:
02-2020
Issue:
169
Author:
John Gao
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Date:
12-2019
Issue:
168
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
12-2019
Issue:
168
Author:
Chris Widman
Date:
12-2019
Issue:
168
Author:
Alex Levin
Nathan Salwen
Date:
09-2019
Issue:
167
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
09-2019
Issue:
167
Author:
Andrew Davidson
Feiqi Jiang
Alex Levin
Date:
09-2019
Issue:
167
Author:
Chris Widman
Date:
06-2019
Issue:
166
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
06-2019
Issue:
166
Author:
Dan Szakallas
Date:
06-2019
Issue:
166
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Date:
04-2019
Issue:
165
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
04-2019
Issue:
165
Author:
Alex Levin
Date:
04-2019
Issue:
165
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Date:
02-2019
Issue:
164
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
02-2019
Issue:
164
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
02-2019
Issue:
164
Author:
Daniel Swanson
Date:
02-2019
Issue:
164
Author:
John Gao
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Date:
12-2018
Issue:
163
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
12-2018
Issue:
163
Author:
Alex Levin
Date:
12-2018
Issue:
163
Author:
Dan Szakallas
Date:
12-2018
Issue:
163
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Date:
10-2018
Issue:
162
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Date:
10-2018
Issue:
162
Author:
Alex Levin
Date:
10-2018
Issue:
162
Author:
Eknath Belbase