The Pipeline

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Welcome to the Pipeline, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.‘s newsletter, a “pipeline” of relevant and useful information, focused on recent trends, changes, and advances in the mortgage investor’s market.

Issue No. 190 | Jun 2025

INSIGHTS FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
Mickey Storms

The longest analytical days of the year yield two insightful Pipeline article topics that shed light on complex dynamics within mortgage finance and risk analytics.

In the first article, Daniel Swanson examines the persistent issue of “churning” in VA loans backing GNMA securities. Despite GNMA’s efforts to mitigate this rapid refinancing activity, churning remains prevalent. Daniel explores possible reasons behind its persistence.

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A GUIDE TO VA CHURNING
Daniel Swanson

VA churning is the practice of repeatedly refinancing VA loans (mortgages backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs) over a short period of time. In churning scenarios lenders aggressively solicit veterans to refinance their VA loans, sometimes just months after obtaining their original mortgage or previous refinance. One component of VA loans that makes churning possible is the ability to roll closing costs and fees into the loan itself, so that there are no immediate out-of-pocket expenses for the borrower.

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DRIVING SHARPER INSIGHTS WITH THE KINETICS REPORTING ENGINE
Eric Limjoco

Soon to be released, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.’s (AD&Co) Kinetics 2.0 provides new reporting capabilities that empower users to gain deeper insights into AD&Co model results.

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This publication is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, and suitability for any purpose are not guaranteed. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this publication constitutes (1) investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice or (2) any recommendation or solicitation to purchase, hold, sell, or otherwise deal in any investment. This publication has been prepared for general informational purposes, without consideration of the circumstances or objectives of any particular investor. Any reliance on the contents of this publication is at the reader’s sole risk. All investment is subject to numerous risks, known and unknown. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For investment advice, seek a qualified investment professional. Note: An affiliate of Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. engages in trading activities in securities that may be the same or similar to those discussed in this publication.

The Pipeline Archive

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Date:
06-2025
Issue:
190
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: INSIGHTS FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE
Date:
06-2025
Issue:
190
Author:
Daniel Swanson
Title: A GUIDE TO VA CHURNING
Date:
06-2025
Issue:
190
Author:
Eric Limjoco
Title: DRIVING SHARPER INSIGHTS WITH THE KINETICS REPORTING ENGINE
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: VEGAS EDITION
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Title: 2025 CCAR: SUPERVISORY SCENARIOS FOR STRESS-TESTING THROUGH AD&CO’S ANALYTICS
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Eric Limjoco
Title: REST EASY WITH THE KINETICS API
Date:
02-2025
Issue:
189
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: VALIDATING CLIMATE IMPACTS: RECENT EVIDENCE
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: FARM LOANS, UPDATING CCY & WHOLE LOANS PART II
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Title: USING LOANDYNAMICS MODEL TO MODEL FARM LOANS
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Feiqi Jiang
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO DEVELOPS A NEW CURRENT COUPON YIELD MODEL
Date:
12-2024
Issue:
188
Author:
Vivian Li
Richard Cooperstein
Title: WHOLE LOAN DYNAMICS AND INSURANCE COMPANY MORTGAGE PURCHASES [PART II]
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: FALLING INTO FALL
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: FALLING RATES AND MORTGAGE MARKET IMPACTS
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Matteo Caracciolo-King
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO UPDATES ITS HOME-PRICE INDEX MODEL (HPI3)
Date:
09-2024
Issue:
187
Author:
Mickey Storms
Matteo Caracciolo-King
Title: PROFILING RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE INVESTMENTS AT INSURANCE COMPANIES
Date:
06-2024
Issue:
186
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: HIGHER FOR EVEN LONGER?
Date:
06-2024
Issue:
186
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Michelle Stepien Breier
Title: IMPROVING MORTGAGE DATA: A DATA EXCHANGE FOR THE MORTGAGE ECOSYSTEM
Date:
06-2024
Issue:
186
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Title: ABILITY-TO-REPAY BENCHMARK UPDATE
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: LEAPING INTO 2024
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: MACRO-CONSIDERATIONS & TWO-SIDED MORTGAGE RISK
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Connor Campbell
Title: SHIFTING GEARS BACK TO FUNDAMENTALS
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Title: 2024 CCAR SCENARIOS: MANDATORY AND EXPLORATORY STRESS-TESTING THROUGH AD&CO’S ANALYTICS
Date:
02-2024
Issue:
185
Author:
Andrew Davidson
Title: FINANCIAL EDUCATION MUST KEEP UP WITH THE TIMES
Date:
12-2023
Issue:
184
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: RETURN OF TWO-WAY RATE RISK
Date:
12-2023
Issue:
184
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Vivian Li
Title: MSR VALUATION AND HEDGING STRATEGIES VIA MSRKINETICS
Date:
12-2023
Issue:
184
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Title: GSE CAPITAL POLICY FUNDAMENTALS
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: SPREADS, CURRENT COUPON & ccLDM
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: BATTLE OF THE BULGE: MORTGAGE RATES TO TREASURY
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: RETROSPECTIVE CURRENT COUPON MBS MEASURES AND MODELS
Date:
09-2023
Issue:
183
Author:
Joni Baker
Eknath Belbase
Title: INTRODUCING CLIMATE CONDITIONED LDM (ccLDM)
Date:
06-2023
Issue:
182
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: HIGHER FOR A BIT LONGER
Date:
06-2023
Issue:
182
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: AD&CO’S HPI OUTLOOK UPDATE: FLAT, BUT MULTIDIRECTIONAL
Date:
06-2023
Issue:
182
Author:
Richard Cooperstein
Kevin Lin
Michelle Stepien Breier
Title: UTILIZING IMPACT TRENDED CREDIT THROUGH AD&CO’S NEW LOANDYNAMICS MODULE IN KINETICS
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: THE SFVEGAS 2023 EDITION
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Tom Parrent
Title: THE MEANDERING S-CURVE: UNRAVELING DYNAMIC PREPAYMENT INCENTIVE BEHAVIOR
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Alex Levin
Daniel Swanson
Title: 2023 CCAR SCENARIOS: A DECADE OF EMPOWERING STRESS-TESTING THROUGH AD&CO’S ANALYTICS
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: OUR PLAN FOR A CLIMATE IMPACT SUITE
Date:
02-2023
Issue:
181
Author:
Joni Baker
Richard Cooperstein
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Title: A LOOK AT UTILITY PAYMENTS AND THEIR POSITIVE IMPACT ON FUTURE MORTGAGE PERFORMANCE
Date:
12-2022
Issue:
180
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: THE HOLIDAY ISSUE
Date:
12-2022
Issue:
180
Author:
Michelle Stepien Breier
Title: ACCESSING AD&CO MODELS THROUGH THIRD-PARTY ANALYTICS PROVIDERS
Date:
12-2022
Issue:
180
Author:
Sanjeeban Chatterjee
Title: TUNING LDM FOR THE NEW ALT-A MARKET
Date:
11-2022
Issue:
179
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: THE CHANGING
Date:
11-2022
Issue:
179
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: TURN AND FACE THE STRANGE . . . CHANGES
Date:
11-2022
Issue:
179
Author:
Alex Levin
Title: 2022 MARKET CHANGES AND RISK NEUTRAL PREPAYMENT MODELING
Date:
09-2022
Issue:
178
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: A CHANGED LANDSCAPE
Date:
09-2022
Issue:
178
Author:
Dan Szakallas
Title: THE CHANGING COMPOSITION OF POOL ISSUANCE DURING PANDEMIC TIMES
Date:
09-2022
Issue:
178
Author:
Mickey Storms
Title: PERSPECTIVES: FRB MBS BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION
Date:
09-2022
Issue:
178
Author:
Matteo Caracciolo-King
Alex Levin
Vivian Li
Title: PRIMARY-SECONDARY SPREAD (PSS) MODELING: 10 YEARS LATER
Date:
09-2022
Issue:
178
Author:
Matteo Caracciolo-King
Title: NEURAL NETWORKS AND PREPAYMENT MODELING
Date:
07-2022
Issue:
177
Author:
Eknath Belbase
Title: COOLING INTO SUMMER