
Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Introducing MARS+ as the Next Generation of Mortgage Analysis and Reporting SystemProducts
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.
The new enhancements of MARS+ include:
- Simplified access to AD&Co models and data from a single page
- Enhanced filtering and stratification of back-testing data
- Distribution of data for key mortgage data analysis parameters
- Model performance visualization and tabular display for selected data of interest
- Customizable dashboards for effective reporting of actual and model results along with data characteristics
In what follows, we summarize how to use the various capabilities and features of MARS+.
Selecting, Filtering, and Stratifying Data of Interest
The initial screen of MARS+ labeled as ‘Model & Data’ provides user interface components that are grouped into three categories: (1) Model & Data Inputs, (2) Filters, and (3) Stratification.
For selected filter and stratification data parameters, the ‘Model & Data’ panel also provides a distribution icon to the right of each filter and the parameter selected for stratification. Upon clicking on a distribution icon, the distribution of the selected data parameter is displayed as a pie chart or a bar chart to the right of filters or stratification bucket definitions.
Any distribution chart shown in the ‘Filters’ and ‘Stratification’ panels can also be added to a dashboard to save it for future use, like re-using and continuing the analysis later or for reporting purposes.
Once the data of interest has been defined in ‘Model & Data Inputs,’ ‘Filters,’ and ‘Stratification,’ clicking the ‘Run Analysis’ button will start the retrieval of actual and pre-calculated model data, and display both actual, that is, historical back-testing data and model results for comparison.
Performance Results
The ‘Performance’ panel displays both actual and model results in an aggregated and stratified form in terms of an interactive chart and a data table as shown in the screenshot below.
While the default chart view typically displays a few parameters, like CPR and Balance, the view parameters can be selected or de-selected from the chart legend.
Any chart or data table viewed in the ‘Performance’ panel can also be added to an existing or a new dashboard to save it for later use.
Dashboard Views
MARS+ provides its users with the facilities to create several dashboards as needed and save them in their local browser’s storage. A dashboard can have up to four components, including user-selected charts and tables generated during the user’s MARS+ session. The following is a sample dashboard with four components that are generated from an analysis run based on selections, filtering, and stratification done in each of the sample screenshots above.
Each dashboard component can also be edited, deleted, or moved within the dashboard.
What is next?
MARS+ will evolve during the beta period in terms of its capabilities, features, and data coverage based on the feedback we receive from our clients and users as ideas, suggestions, questions, issues, and requests. There are also a few planned improvements that we would like to implement during the beta period, including but not limited to:
- Extending the data distributions covering all mortgage data used by our models
- Providing data distribution charts for user-selected dates
- Developing a persistent and secure server-side storage infrastructure enabling users to re-use saved filters, stratifications, and dashboards with original as well as updated data
- Providing additional chart types to display residuals as well as model forecasts beyond the historical back-testing data
Please contact us at support@ad-co.com with any feedback you may have, including your ideas, suggestions, questions, issues, and requests.
The S-Curve Archives
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Products
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.
The new enhancements of MARS+ include:
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Events
Several AD&Co employees attended SFVegas 2025. This post shares their unique perspectives from attending the conference and key takeaways from the sessions.
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Thoughts
We’re excited to announce our latest Quantitative Perspectives providing in-depth insights into current market trends and advanced valuation techniques. This publication offers valuable information for mortgage market participants and those involved in credit risk transfer transactions.
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Podcast
Tune in to Laura Silberg's interview with Andrew Davidson, Eknath Belbase and Alex Levin as they discuss their latest Quantitative Perspectives, our independent commentary series, titled
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Thoughts
As providers of mortgage models for financial institutions, Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) enables clients to validate their use of our models and offers documentation describing the conceptual framework of the models, back-testing results, and sample forecasts under a variety of economic conditions. We also work with analytics providers who have incorporated our models to ensure that the models works as intended.
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Thoughts
We’re excited to announce two new Quantitative Perspectives that provide in-depth insights into current market trends and advanced valuation techniques. These papers offer valuable information for mortgage market participants and those involved in credit risk transfer transactions.
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Events
Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) proudly sponsored the Information Management Network (IMN)’s 10th Annual Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Forum, held November 21 - 22, 2024 at the New York Marriott at Brooklyn Bridge.
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Podcast
Tune in to Michelle Stepien Breier's interview with Alex Levin & Matteo Caracciolo-King as they discuss their latest Pipeline article “AD&Co Updates its Home Price Index Model.” The interview highlights key points from the article as they share recent updates to the HPI3 model.
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Thoughts
With the increasing volumes of Synthetic Risk Transfer (SRT) and Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) along with the discussion of BASEL III, we thought it would be useful to re-issue our comment letter to FHFA on the capital treatment of Credit Risk Transfer.
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Podcast
Recently, senior credit modeler, Daniel Swanson had the pleasure of speaking with Rob Kessel from the Panoramic Capital Academy podcast titled, “Modeler’s Perspective on Prepayment Modeling.” This podcast is