The S-Curve

Welcome to The S-Curve

Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.

The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.

We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.

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Blog - Latest
  • Gritty Renaissance: AD&Co Visits Detroit

    Tom Parrent

    Thoughts

    AD&Co held our annual employee meeting in Detroit, Michigan. In addition to gathering everyone in person to socialize and strategize, we use these annual meetings to learn about different cities, especially with regard to housing market dynamics.

    We chose Detroit because the oft-maligned city is undergoing a significant renaissance, and we wanted to explore the area and learn how housing may have played a role in both Detroit’s decline and rebirth.

    From the early 1900s through the mid-1960s, Detroit was an industrial and innovation powerhouse. Beyond automobiles, the southeastern Michigan area attracted new residents with jobs in everything from heavy industry to machine shops to transportation.

    Detroit has always had a substantial share of single-family houses compared to other industrial hubs, which relied more on high-density multifamily housing. While homeownership rates were generally high, opportunities were not evenly dispersed, as racial redlining led to largely segregated neighborhoods and lower homeownership rates among blacks and ethnic minorities. Although redlining was common in the first half of the 20th century in many large American cities, Michigan set itself apart.  Its Home Rule Act allowed a great deal of self-governance by small cities leading to the creation of dozens of very small towns, all with different public services and both subtle and overt discriminatory policies. The Home Rule Act also allowed large companies to heavily influence local taxation policy and effectively create low tax havens in small towns, thus starving the greater Detroit area of tax revenue.

    Detroit started facing significant troubles in the late 1960s, as the 1967 race riots led to significant white flight. The OPEC embargo in the early 1970’s increased oil prices and opened the door to more fuel-efficient foreign competitors in auto manufacturing. The city’s decline began with significant population loss due to both unemployment and migration to suburban areas, resulting in deterioration of inner-city housing stock and severe underfunding of public services such as police, fire protection and education.

    Long known for its grit and determination, Detroit started to come back in the 1990s and early 2000s as the auto industry recovered. However, much of that progress was lost during the Great Recession due to predatory lending and the second collapse of American automakers. Many large blocks of the inner city were left with only one or two houses standing, and arson for insurance money plagued the housing stock.

    However, Detroit’s revival in the past ten years proved even bigger than all of its setbacks. The Lions, Tigers, Red Wings, and Pistons now all have their venues within easy walking distance of the revitalized downtown business and entertainment district. The city built a new riverfront parkway and renovated parks. Downtown has incredible energy once again, with bustling businesses and residential towers going up, not to mention the burgeoning art scene popping up in multiple locations.

    Laura Grannemann, Executive Director, Rocket Community Fund & Gilbert Family Foundation, gave an overview of the organizations' endeavors in the community. As one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, their Detroit Home Repair Fund and Detroit Tax Relief Fund work to head off displacement through preventing tax foreclosure and eviction.

    Detroit still faces many challenges, particularly in those neighborhoods hit hardest by out-migration, foreclosures, and underinvestment in city services. Wealth and influence remain highly concentrated, and the Home Rule Act micro towns remain an impediment to healthy Detroit finances and provision of basic services. Despite this, we found encouraging pockets of home-grown revitalization. Jeanette Pierce, president of City Institute, showed us how hyper-local organizing is bringing growth and renewal without troublesome gentrification and displacement. We met leaders from organizations such as the Southwest Detroit Business Association, Capital Impact Partners, and Live6 Alliance that advocate for fair housing and community engagement. Keeping people in the neighborhoods that multiple generations have called home is a hallmark of these local initiatives. Tactical rezoning has helped overcome some of the obstacles to development presented by Detroit’s traditional focus on detached single-family housing.

    The team also met Ike Blessitt, who personifies Detroit’s gritty reputation. Ike grew up in Hamtramck, one of the Home Rule Act towns completely surrounded by Detroit. As a four-sport high school star athlete, Ike attracted the attention of Detroit Tigers scouts and eventually made it to the major leagues with the 1972 Tigers. Today, even as a 76-year-old double amputee, Ike has continued his 15 years of teaching individuals, aged 6 to 60, how to play baseball. Like the development efforts, Ike keeps it local to help inner-city kids by building a complete baseball training facility in his Detroit backyard. The Ike Blessitt Sports Academy attracts kids from throughout Detroit.

    We came away from Detroit with a real appreciation for the daily challenges its residents overcome through innovation and community organizing. The lively sports and entertainment district will surprise new visitors, but digging deeper into the neighborhoods will show that this renaissance is just getting started.

Blog - Archives

The S-Curve Archives

  • Vivian Li

    Thoughts

    In this blog post, we used the recently updated Mortgage Market Statistical Annual to examine the dynamics of residential loan origination by state and by market segments and highlight important trends.

  • Eric Limjoco

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of Kinetics v1.10, the latest update to AD&Co’s modular platform for running the AD&Co suite of analytics. This update introduces the Multifamily LoanDynamics Module, the newest way to run Multifamily LoanDynamics Model (LDM). Investors, servicers, insurers and lenders can leverage this new module to better understand the prepayment and credit risk of their multifamily mortgage portfolio.

  • Mickey Storms

    Events

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) held a webinar on June 8th entitled “Lessons Learned: Insights for Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Banks.” Mickey Storms from our Alliances and Policies team, Alex Levin from our Financial Engineering team and Andrew Davidson were featured speakers.

  • Hikmet Senay

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of a new monthly report series titled “Specified Pool Prepayment Trends,” which aims at showing market prepayment trends for specified agency pools in support of pay-up analyses by investors, traders, and alike.

  • Michelle Stepien Breier

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce that Polypaths LLC supports AD&Co’s Auto LoanDynamics Model (Auto LDM) providing prepayments, defaults and losses on auto loans and securities.

  • Richard Cooperstein

    Events

    The Structured Finance Association hosted SFVegas 2023 (February 26 - March 1), a broad capital markets conference with thousands of attendees in Las Vegas.  Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) was a sponsor focused on the mortgage sector.  As we engaged with clients and policy leaders, a few themes emerged: Data, Expanding Access Safely, Ginnie Mae Servicing and Auto Loan Performance.

  • Eric Limjoco

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of the LoanDynamics Module in Kinetics, AD&Co's new modular platform for running AD&Co analytics via a desktop application, web browser, or REST API. The LoanDynamics Module is the latest way to run the LoanDynamics Model, allowing users to perform sensitivity analysis, validation testing, and scenario analysis in a modern, user-friendly application.

  • Sanjeeban Chatterjee

    Thoughts

    Recently the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced some upcoming changes related to the use of new credit scores, FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “FHFA expects that implementation of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 will be a multiyear effort. Once implemented, lenders will be required to deliver both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores with each loan sold to the Enterprises”.[1] This announcement will impact the entire mortgage ecosystem.

  • Adam Marchuck

    Thoughts

    January is National Mentoring Month which is very appropriate since it coincides with the time when we typically set out our goals and intentions for the New Year. Organizations are embracing mentoring programs and these programs have indeed become a strategic imperative for many. There are many benefits to mentorship and it's easy enough to comprehend. The individuals involved in a mentoring relationship and the organizations that choose to sponsor a mentoring program all are likely to benefit.

  • Richard Cooperstein

    Thoughts

    Homeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the history of racial discrimination (it was actually legal to discriminate by race in housing until the Fair Housing Act of 1968), suggests that we have a continuing responsibility to ensure fair access to housing and housing finance.