
Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Gritty Renaissance: AD&Co Visits DetroitThoughts
AD&Co held our annual employee meeting in Detroit, Michigan. In addition to gathering everyone in person to socialize and strategize, we use these annual meetings to learn about different cities, especially with regard to housing market dynamics.
We chose Detroit because the oft-maligned city is undergoing a significant renaissance, and we wanted to explore the area and learn how housing may have played a role in both Detroit’s decline and rebirth.
From the early 1900s through the mid-1960s, Detroit was an industrial and innovation powerhouse. Beyond automobiles, the southeastern Michigan area attracted new residents with jobs in everything from heavy industry to machine shops to transportation.
Detroit has always had a substantial share of single-family houses compared to other industrial hubs, which relied more on high-density multifamily housing. While homeownership rates were generally high, opportunities were not evenly dispersed, as racial redlining led to largely segregated neighborhoods and lower homeownership rates among blacks and ethnic minorities. Although redlining was common in the first half of the 20th century in many large American cities, Michigan set itself apart. Its Home Rule Act allowed a great deal of self-governance by small cities leading to the creation of dozens of very small towns, all with different public services and both subtle and overt discriminatory policies. The Home Rule Act also allowed large companies to heavily influence local taxation policy and effectively create low tax havens in small towns, thus starving the greater Detroit area of tax revenue.
Detroit started facing significant troubles in the late 1960s, as the 1967 race riots led to significant white flight. The OPEC embargo in the early 1970’s increased oil prices and opened the door to more fuel-efficient foreign competitors in auto manufacturing. The city’s decline began with significant population loss due to both unemployment and migration to suburban areas, resulting in deterioration of inner-city housing stock and severe underfunding of public services such as police, fire protection and education.
Long known for its grit and determination, Detroit started to come back in the 1990s and early 2000s as the auto industry recovered. However, much of that progress was lost during the Great Recession due to predatory lending and the second collapse of American automakers. Many large blocks of the inner city were left with only one or two houses standing, and arson for insurance money plagued the housing stock.
However, Detroit’s revival in the past ten years proved even bigger than all of its setbacks. The Lions, Tigers, Red Wings, and Pistons now all have their venues within easy walking distance of the revitalized downtown business and entertainment district. The city built a new riverfront parkway and renovated parks. Downtown has incredible energy once again, with bustling businesses and residential towers going up, not to mention the burgeoning art scene popping up in multiple locations.
Laura Grannemann, Executive Director, Rocket Community Fund & Gilbert Family Foundation, gave an overview of the organizations' endeavors in the community. As one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, their Detroit Home Repair Fund and Detroit Tax Relief Fund work to head off displacement through preventing tax foreclosure and eviction.
Detroit still faces many challenges, particularly in those neighborhoods hit hardest by out-migration, foreclosures, and underinvestment in city services. Wealth and influence remain highly concentrated, and the Home Rule Act micro towns remain an impediment to healthy Detroit finances and provision of basic services. Despite this, we found encouraging pockets of home-grown revitalization. Jeanette Pierce, president of City Institute, showed us how hyper-local organizing is bringing growth and renewal without troublesome gentrification and displacement. We met leaders from organizations such as the Southwest Detroit Business Association, Capital Impact Partners, and Live6 Alliance that advocate for fair housing and community engagement. Keeping people in the neighborhoods that multiple generations have called home is a hallmark of these local initiatives. Tactical rezoning has helped overcome some of the obstacles to development presented by Detroit’s traditional focus on detached single-family housing.
The team also met Ike Blessitt, who personifies Detroit’s gritty reputation. Ike grew up in Hamtramck, one of the Home Rule Act towns completely surrounded by Detroit. As a four-sport high school star athlete, Ike attracted the attention of Detroit Tigers scouts and eventually made it to the major leagues with the 1972 Tigers. Today, even as a 76-year-old double amputee, Ike has continued his 15 years of teaching individuals, aged 6 to 60, how to play baseball. Like the development efforts, Ike keeps it local to help inner-city kids by building a complete baseball training facility in his Detroit backyard. The Ike Blessitt Sports Academy attracts kids from throughout Detroit.
We came away from Detroit with a real appreciation for the daily challenges its residents overcome through innovation and community organizing. The lively sports and entertainment district will surprise new visitors, but digging deeper into the neighborhoods will show that this renaissance is just getting started.
The S-Curve Archives
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Podcast
Recently, senior credit modeler, Daniel Swanson had the pleasure of speaking with Rob Kessel from the Panoramic Capital Academy podcast titled, “Modeler’s Perspective on Prepayment Modeling.” This podcast is
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Thoughts
The earliest paper we found examining the impact of climate risks on house prices was from 2017, which found a relationship between elevation/sea level rise and house price differences.[1]
We built our climate-conditioned HPA model in 2022 based on the idea that an increase in insurance costs would impact house prices (something we had not studied yet) in the same way that an increase of the same size in mortgage rates would impact house prices (something that we were quite familiar with).
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News
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce a new alliance with Mortgage Capital Trading, Inc. (MCT), a leading provider of mortgage capital market solutions.
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Events
At Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co), our dedication to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) has been a cornerstone of our values. We established our DEI Committee in 2020, following the tragic murder of George Floyd. Despite the evolving landscape, including the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision impacting affirmative action in higher education, we remain steadfast in our commitment to fostering an inclusive environment that strengthens both our employees and the company.
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PodcastTune in to Eknath Belbase's interview with Michelle Stepien Breier & Richard Cooperstein as they discuss their latest Pipeline article “Improving Mortgage Data: A Data Exchange for the Mortgage Ecosystem.”
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Events
At the recent AmeriCatalyst ‘Going to Extremes’ Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit, I presented a session on how risks related to weather-related losses impact the housing finance system.
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Events
Andy and I recently attended AmeriCatalyst ‘Going to Extremes’ Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C., a fantastic conference on all things related to climate risk and the housing ecosystem. While going over all the great speakers and broad expertise represented there would take a novella, I want to connect a few key ideas discussed there to our ongoing efforts in this area.
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Products
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is thrilled to announce an expanding relationship with a Third-Party Vendor! AD&Co enjoys working with countless analytical providers to offer our clients seamless solutions and we would like to welcome Milliman M-PIRe™ to the team!
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Events
The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco directed the Urban Institute to develop innovative and actionable ideas to close the gap between white and black homeownership rates, which is as wide today as before the Fair Housing Act, enacted 60 years ago. Homeownership is crucial to a fairer society because working and middle-class families most commonly create inter-generational wealth by owning homes with amortizing mortgages.
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Events
The Data Foundation of Mortgage Finance
Homeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the non-interest cost of financing is always an obstacle for first-time and low-wealth buyers, and underserved populations.