
Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Introducing MARS+ as the Next Generation of Mortgage Analysis and Reporting SystemProducts
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.
The new enhancements of MARS+ include:
- Simplified access to AD&Co models and data from a single page
- Enhanced filtering and stratification of back-testing data
- Distribution of data for key mortgage data analysis parameters
- Model performance visualization and tabular display for selected data of interest
- Customizable dashboards for effective reporting of actual and model results along with data characteristics
In what follows, we summarize how to use the various capabilities and features of MARS+.
Selecting, Filtering, and Stratifying Data of Interest
The initial screen of MARS+ labeled as ‘Model & Data’ provides user interface components that are grouped into three categories: (1) Model & Data Inputs, (2) Filters, and (3) Stratification.
For selected filter and stratification data parameters, the ‘Model & Data’ panel also provides a distribution icon to the right of each filter and the parameter selected for stratification. Upon clicking on a distribution icon, the distribution of the selected data parameter is displayed as a pie chart or a bar chart to the right of filters or stratification bucket definitions.
Any distribution chart shown in the ‘Filters’ and ‘Stratification’ panels can also be added to a dashboard to save it for future use, like re-using and continuing the analysis later or for reporting purposes.
Once the data of interest has been defined in ‘Model & Data Inputs,’ ‘Filters,’ and ‘Stratification,’ clicking the ‘Run Analysis’ button will start the retrieval of actual and pre-calculated model data, and display both actual, that is, historical back-testing data and model results for comparison.
Performance Results
The ‘Performance’ panel displays both actual and model results in an aggregated and stratified form in terms of an interactive chart and a data table as shown in the screenshot below.
While the default chart view typically displays a few parameters, like CPR and Balance, the view parameters can be selected or de-selected from the chart legend.
Any chart or data table viewed in the ‘Performance’ panel can also be added to an existing or a new dashboard to save it for later use.
Dashboard Views
MARS+ provides its users with the facilities to create several dashboards as needed and save them in their local browser’s storage. A dashboard can have up to four components, including user-selected charts and tables generated during the user’s MARS+ session. The following is a sample dashboard with four components that are generated from an analysis run based on selections, filtering, and stratification done in each of the sample screenshots above.
Each dashboard component can also be edited, deleted, or moved within the dashboard.
What is next?
MARS+ will evolve during the beta period in terms of its capabilities, features, and data coverage based on the feedback we receive from our clients and users as ideas, suggestions, questions, issues, and requests. There are also a few planned improvements that we would like to implement during the beta period, including but not limited to:
- Extending the data distributions covering all mortgage data used by our models
- Providing data distribution charts for user-selected dates
- Developing a persistent and secure server-side storage infrastructure enabling users to re-use saved filters, stratifications, and dashboards with original as well as updated data
- Providing additional chart types to display residuals as well as model forecasts beyond the historical back-testing data
Please contact us at support@ad-co.com with any feedback you may have, including your ideas, suggestions, questions, issues, and requests.
The S-Curve Archives
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Thoughts
The earliest paper we found examining the impact of climate risks on house prices was from 2017, which found a relationship between elevation/sea level rise and house price differences.[1]
We built our climate-conditioned HPA model in 2022 based on the idea that an increase in insurance costs would impact house prices (something we had not studied yet) in the same way that an increase of the same size in mortgage rates would impact house prices (something that we were quite familiar with).
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News
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce a new alliance with Mortgage Capital Trading, Inc. (MCT), a leading provider of mortgage capital market solutions.
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Events
At Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co), our dedication to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) has been a cornerstone of our values. We established our DEI Committee in 2020, following the tragic murder of George Floyd. Despite the evolving landscape, including the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision impacting affirmative action in higher education, we remain steadfast in our commitment to fostering an inclusive environment that strengthens both our employees and the company.
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PodcastTune in to Eknath Belbase's interview with Michelle Stepien Breier & Richard Cooperstein as they discuss their latest Pipeline article “Improving Mortgage Data: A Data Exchange for the Mortgage Ecosystem.”
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Events
Andy and I recently attended AmeriCatalyst ‘Going to Extremes’ Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C., a fantastic conference on all things related to climate risk and the housing ecosystem. While going over all the great speakers and broad expertise represented there would take a novella, I want to connect a few key ideas discussed there to our ongoing efforts in this area.
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Events
At the recent AmeriCatalyst ‘Going to Extremes’ Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit, I presented a session on how risks related to weather-related losses impact the housing finance system.
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Products
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is thrilled to announce an expanding relationship with a Third-Party Vendor! AD&Co enjoys working with countless analytical providers to offer our clients seamless solutions and we would like to welcome Milliman M-PIRe™ to the team!
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Events
The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco directed the Urban Institute to develop innovative and actionable ideas to close the gap between white and black homeownership rates, which is as wide today as before the Fair Housing Act, enacted 60 years ago. Homeownership is crucial to a fairer society because working and middle-class families most commonly create inter-generational wealth by owning homes with amortizing mortgages.
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Events
The Data Foundation of Mortgage Finance
Homeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the non-interest cost of financing is always an obstacle for first-time and low-wealth buyers, and underserved populations.
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Thoughts
In this blog post, we used the recently updated Mortgage Market Statistical Annual to examine the dynamics of residential loan origination by state and by market segments and highlight important trends.