Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Now Available: AD&Co’s Quantitative PerspectivesThoughtsRecently, aggregators have crossed market borders by issuing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by owner-occupied (OO), GSE-eligible conforming loans. Additionally, conforming mortgage loans have drawn investment interest from insurance companies fronted by aggregators and evaluated by third-party firms. These developments constitute historically rare disintermediations of the nearly monopsonist purchases of conforming loans by the GSEs.
We're thrilled to announce our latest Quantitative Perspectives where Mickey Storms and Alex Levin present examples of how Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) financial engineering techologies can be used by loan sellers and originators to fully evaluate the economics of GSE-conforming loan pricing, GSE credit fees, and loan sale options. Click below to read the full paper.
This paper will be a valuable resource for your work. A login is required for access. If you have any questions or would like to discuss the content in more detail, please contact support@ad-co.com.
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AD&Conversations: Trends in the Home Equity SectorPodcastJoin Rob Landauer in a conversation with Abe Martin as they discuss his recent Pipeline article, "Modeling the Balance Behavior of HELOC Borrowers." In this episode, they highlight key points from the article as he shares insights into the draw component of HELOCs and provide an update on the beta release of our much-anticipated industry HELOC model.
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Industry Leaders in Fixed-Income Analytics, Kelli Sayres and Gene Park, join Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.News
We’re excited to announce a major addition to the Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) team. Industry leaders Kelli Sayres and Gene Park, known for building and scaling leading fixed-income analytics platforms, have joined AD&Co’s Business Development team. With decades of experience, deep client partnerships, and a shared commitment to rigorous quantitative analytics, their arrival marks an exciting new chapter for our firm and the clients we serve.
Read the full press release to learn more about their backgrounds, recent work at Numerix, formerly known as PolyPaths and what this means for AD&Co.
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White Paper: Evaluating GSE Servicing Rights With Extended Consumer Credit Data: Valuation and Sensitivity AnalysisThoughtsBuilding on our earlier research on expanded consumer attributes, AD&Co continues to explore how credit data contributes to modeling delinquency and prepayment risk, which are key drivers of mortgage servicing rights cash flows and valuation.
Our latest analysis shows that while modern credit scores capture important borrower behavior, there is still meaningful explanatory power beyond any single score. Across 2,000+ consumer attributes, additional variables provide incremental insight into loan performance and mortgage servicing rights valuation dynamics.
Read Now
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Andrew Davidson Featured on the One On One with Greg SherEventsAndrew Davidson recently joined NFM Lending’s Greg Sher on the One On One podcast to discuss our recent white paper, “The Impact of Moving Away From the Tri-Merge Standard.”
In the conversation, Andrew shares insights on the evolving credit score landscape and what these changes could mean for mortgage modeling and risk assessment.
You can listen to the full discussion here:
The S-Curve Archives
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EventsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) proudly sponsored IMN’s 11th Annual Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Forum by Informa at the New York Hilton Midtown. Senior modeler Daniel Swanson joined the “Managing Delinquencies & Forbearance Value” panel in discussing how servicers are adapting to today’s market and the evolving delinquency trends.
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PodcastTune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:
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Podcast
Tune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:
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Podcast
Andrew Davidson was invited to speak on Equifax's Market Pulse Podcast titled, "Driving Efficiency and Resilience in the Mortgage Industry" live at the 2025 MBA Annual Convention in Las Vegas.
Andy explains how variations in data files can distort risk assessment, creating a dual risk for lenders: extending credit to borrowers more likely to default while overcharging customers whose risk is overstated.
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ThoughtsOur latest Policy Perspective written by Richard Cooperstein offers an analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage finance markets, focusing on key trends and forward-looking risks. While housing markets are not fully efficient, they do respond to economic imbalances which create opportunities and vulnerabilities. This article explores how demographic shifts, credit access, interest rates, and climate risks shape both housing demand and supply.
Key findings include:
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Podcast
Join Kevin Lin in a conversation with Richard Cooperstein as they dive into Kinetics, AD&Co's modular platform designed to deliver the full power of our models and analytics; with the flexibility to license only the tools you need.
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Thoughts
The latest Policy Perspectives paper “Competing Claims in Privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac” is now available!
Nearly 20 years ago, on September 6, 2008, the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac entered conservatorship. Since that time there have been many proposals to restructure, eliminate or release the GSEs. Once again there is talk about the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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ThoughtsAD&Co held our annual employee meeting in Detroit, Michigan. In addition to gathering everyone in person to socialize and strategize, we use these annual meetings to learn about different cities, especially with regard to housing market dynamics.
We chose Detroit because the oft-maligned city is undergoing a significant renaissance, and we wanted to explore the area and learn how housing may have played a role in both Detroit’s decline and rebirth.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.
The new enhancements of MARS+ include:
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EventsSeveral AD&Co employees attended SFVegas 2025. This post shares their unique perspectives from attending the conference and key takeaways from the sessions.