The S-Curve

Welcome to The S-Curve

Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.

The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.

We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.

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Blog - Latest
  • Introducing MARS+ as the Next Generation of Mortgage Analysis and Reporting System

    Niraj Tailor, Hikmet Senay

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.

    The new enhancements of MARS+ include:

    • Simplified access to AD&Co models and data from a single page
    • Enhanced filtering and stratification of back-testing data
    • Distribution of data for key mortgage data analysis parameters
    • Model performance visualization and tabular display for selected data of interest
    • Customizable dashboards for effective reporting of actual and model results along with data characteristics

    In what follows, we summarize how to use the various capabilities and features of MARS+.

     

    Selecting, Filtering, and Stratifying Data of Interest

    The initial screen of MARS+ labeled as ‘Model & Data’ provides user interface components that are grouped into three categories: (1) Model & Data Inputs, (2) Filters, and (3) Stratification.

    MARS+ Model & Data Panel

    For selected filter and stratification data parameters, the ‘Model & Data’ panel also provides a distribution icon to the right of each filter and the parameter selected for stratification. Upon clicking on a distribution icon, the distribution of the selected data parameter is displayed as a pie chart or a bar chart to the right of filters or stratification bucket definitions.

    MARS+ Model & Data Panel - Distribution

    Any distribution chart shown in the ‘Filters’ and ‘Stratification’ panels can also be added to a dashboard to save it for future use, like re-using and continuing the analysis later or for reporting purposes.

    Once the data of interest has been defined in ‘Model & Data Inputs,’ ‘Filters,’ and ‘Stratification,’ clicking the ‘Run Analysis’ button will start the retrieval of actual and pre-calculated model data, and display both actual, that is, historical back-testing data and model results for comparison.

     

    Performance Results

    The ‘Performance’ panel displays both actual and model results in an aggregated and stratified form in terms of an interactive chart and a data table as shown in the screenshot below.

    While the default chart view typically displays a few parameters, like CPR and Balance, the view parameters can be selected or de-selected from the chart legend.

    Any chart or data table viewed in the ‘Performance’ panel can also be added to an existing or a new dashboard to save it for later use.

    MARS+ Performance Panel

     

    Dashboard Views

    MARS+ provides its users with the facilities to create several dashboards as needed and save them in their local browser’s storage. A dashboard can have up to four components, including user-selected charts and tables generated during the user’s MARS+ session. The following is a sample dashboard with four components that are generated from an analysis run based on selections, filtering, and stratification done in each of the sample screenshots above.

    MARS+ Dashboard Panel

    Each dashboard component can also be edited, deleted, or moved within the dashboard.

     

    What is next?

    MARS+ will evolve during the beta period in terms of its capabilities, features, and data coverage based on the feedback we receive from our clients and users as ideas, suggestions, questions, issues, and requests. There are also a few planned improvements that we would like to implement during the beta period, including but not limited to:

    • Extending the data distributions covering all mortgage data used by our models
    • Providing data distribution charts for user-selected dates
    • Developing a persistent and secure server-side storage infrastructure enabling users to re-use saved filters, stratifications, and dashboards with original as well as updated data
    • Providing additional chart types to display residuals as well as model forecasts beyond the historical back-testing data

    Please contact us at support@ad-co.com with any feedback you may have, including your ideas, suggestions, questions, issues, and requests.

Blog - Archives

The S-Curve Archives

  • Vivian Li, Rob Landauer

    Events

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) proudly sponsored IMN’s 11th Annual Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Forum by Informa at the New York Hilton Midtown. Senior modeler Daniel Swanson joined the “Managing Delinquencies & Forbearance Value” panel in discussing how servicers are adapting to today’s market and the evolving delinquency trends.

  • Kevin Lin, Eknath Belbase

    Podcast

    Tune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:

  • Kevin Lin, Eknath Belbase

    Podcast

    Tune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:

  • Andrew Davidson

    Podcast

    Andrew Davidson was invited to speak on Equifax's Market Pulse Podcast titled, "Driving Efficiency and Resilience in the Mortgage Industry" live at the 2025 MBA Annual Convention in Las Vegas. 

    Andy explains how variations in data files can distort risk assessment, creating a dual risk for lenders: extending credit to borrowers more likely to default while overcharging customers whose risk is overstated. 

  • Richard Cooperstein

    Thoughts

    Our latest Policy Perspective written by Richard Cooperstein offers an analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage finance markets, focusing on key trends and forward-looking risks. While housing markets are not fully efficient, they do respond to economic imbalances which create opportunities and vulnerabilities. This article explores how demographic shifts, credit access, interest rates, and climate risks shape both housing demand and supply.

    Key findings include:

  • Kevin Lin, Richard Cooperstein

    Podcast

    Join Kevin Lin in a conversation with Richard Cooperstein as they dive into Kinetics, AD&Co's modular platform designed to deliver the full power of our models and analytics; with the flexibility to license only the tools you need.

  • Andrew Davidson

    Thoughts

    The latest Policy Perspectives paper “Competing Claims in Privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac” is now available!

    Nearly 20 years ago, on September 6, 2008, the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac entered conservatorship. Since that time there have been many proposals to restructure, eliminate or release the GSEs. Once again there is talk about the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

  • Tom Parrent

    Thoughts

    AD&Co held our annual employee meeting in Detroit, Michigan. In addition to gathering everyone in person to socialize and strategize, we use these annual meetings to learn about different cities, especially with regard to housing market dynamics.

    We chose Detroit because the oft-maligned city is undergoing a significant renaissance, and we wanted to explore the area and learn how housing may have played a role in both Detroit’s decline and rebirth.

  • Niraj Tailor, Hikmet Senay

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.

    The new enhancements of MARS+ include:

  • Eknath Belbase, Laura Silberg, Aidan Loftus, Joni Baker, Sam Sutton, Richard Cooperstein

    Events

    Several AD&Co employees attended SFVegas 2025. This post shares their unique perspectives from attending the conference and key takeaways from the sessions.