The S-Curve

Welcome to The S-Curve

Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.

The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.

We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.

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Blog - Latest
  • Why Improving Access to Auto Loans Will Improve Job Stability and Diversity in the Workforce

    Connor Campbell

    Thoughts

    For many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.

    Transportation barriers are among the many obstacles to achieving diversity and inclusion in the workforce. If people can’t get to work, people can’t get jobs. But the inaccessibility of auto loans is too often a barrier.

    The solution isn’t as simple as applying for a car loan. Taking out risky, high-interest loans without understanding the terms is a dangerous move for borrowers. The practice might technically improve access to auto loans in the short term, but the long-run picture is bleaker. Predatory lending leads to more auto loan defaults and more barriers to owning vehicles, especially in lower-income brackets.

    People work hard to make sure they can meet their financial commitments each month, and I believe there are many areas to improve accessibility when it comes to applying for an auto loan. Businesses that focus on helping borrowers with these areas will reap the benefits of workforce diversity while also doing good in their surrounding communities.

    Financial Barriers to Employment

    Life is unpredictable, and a stressed financial situation over a consistent period increases the risk of not being able to meet financial commitments. Unexpected costs pop up, resulting in borrowers being unable to meet their payments in already stressed situations. A chain reaction can then occur when a financial burden snowballs into losing a car, a job, or even a home. 

    Common barriers to employment include homelessness, substance use disorder, long-term welfare dependence, and lack of computer skills. Many companies also run background checks that include credit scores, even though it’s been proven that these models are biased against people who do not have generational wealth.

    Even worse, predatory lenders often target the financially disadvantaged. Some lenders are incentivized to give out risky loans with high interest based on imperfect information. These loans are then sold so the originator is no longer responsible for the risk of the loan they originated.

    This cycle ultimately leads to less diversity in the workforce. But we can overcome these barriers to employment if we start by resolving one thing at a time, starting with the transportation situation.

    3 Necessities to Apply for an Auto Loan

    A vehicle can get us back and forth to work, and it can also be a place to live in a pinch while getting things back together. But if someone lacks one of these key aspects of securing an auto loan, they’re likely to experience major barriers in the process:

    1. Steady Income

    Default rates on auto loans are closely correlated with unemployment. A steady income is becoming more ambiguous with the rise of the gig economy, but a good rule of thumb for borrowers is finding an average income received per month after taxes. If they don’t have a full-time job, they shouldn’t hesitate to take on gigs to earn income.

    2. Healthy Credit Score

    While some lenders may give borrowers an auto loan despite bad or no credit, a healthy credit score provides borrowers with the best rate. It’s important to remember that dealers are incentivized to give people loans, so borrowers will often feel pressure from salespeople. One way to alleviate that pressure is for borrowers to get preapproved with their bank first to get a better rate based on a clearer picture of their financial situations.

    3. Monthly Expenses

    It’s important for borrowers to budget and know where their money is going each month. This helps them understand what type of monthly payment they can afford. Personally, I break my spending down into two categories: essential (food, housing, utilities) and nonessential (streaming, cable, etc.). With an idea of how much they’re saving or spending, borrowers can make better financial decisions.

    Getting to Work

    No qualified job candidate should have to decline a job offer because they can’t afford to commute to work. But businesses can integrate transportation allowances into their hiring and onboarding processes for potential candidates.

    At Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc., we are actively researching how to incorporate alternative metrics that can be used to help paint a more accurate picture of a person’s financial history. Some of these include paying rent and cell phone bills consistently on time, which are not included in traditional credit scores. This information can be used by either employers or auto lenders to make better decisions.

Blog - Archives

The S-Curve Archives

  • Vivian Li, Rob Landauer

    Events

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) proudly sponsored IMN’s 11th Annual Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) Forum by Informa at the New York Hilton Midtown. Senior modeler Daniel Swanson joined the “Managing Delinquencies & Forbearance Value” panel in discussing how servicers are adapting to today’s market and the evolving delinquency trends.

  • Kevin Lin, Eknath Belbase

    Podcast

    Tune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:

  • Kevin Lin, Eknath Belbase

    Podcast

    Tune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:

  • Andrew Davidson

    Podcast

    Andrew Davidson was invited to speak on Equifax's Market Pulse Podcast titled, "Driving Efficiency and Resilience in the Mortgage Industry" live at the 2025 MBA Annual Convention in Las Vegas. 

    Andy explains how variations in data files can distort risk assessment, creating a dual risk for lenders: extending credit to borrowers more likely to default while overcharging customers whose risk is overstated. 

  • Richard Cooperstein

    Thoughts

    Our latest Policy Perspective written by Richard Cooperstein offers an analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage finance markets, focusing on key trends and forward-looking risks. While housing markets are not fully efficient, they do respond to economic imbalances which create opportunities and vulnerabilities. This article explores how demographic shifts, credit access, interest rates, and climate risks shape both housing demand and supply.

    Key findings include:

  • Kevin Lin, Richard Cooperstein

    Podcast

    Join Kevin Lin in a conversation with Richard Cooperstein as they dive into Kinetics, AD&Co's modular platform designed to deliver the full power of our models and analytics; with the flexibility to license only the tools you need.

  • Andrew Davidson

    Thoughts

    The latest Policy Perspectives paper “Competing Claims in Privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac” is now available!

    Nearly 20 years ago, on September 6, 2008, the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac entered conservatorship. Since that time there have been many proposals to restructure, eliminate or release the GSEs. Once again there is talk about the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

  • Tom Parrent

    Thoughts

    AD&Co held our annual employee meeting in Detroit, Michigan. In addition to gathering everyone in person to socialize and strategize, we use these annual meetings to learn about different cities, especially with regard to housing market dynamics.

    We chose Detroit because the oft-maligned city is undergoing a significant renaissance, and we wanted to explore the area and learn how housing may have played a role in both Detroit’s decline and rebirth.

  • Niraj Tailor, Hikmet Senay

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of MARS+, the next generation of Mortgage Analysis & Reporting System (MARS), which has been in use since 2008 for performance reporting of AD&Co models. MARS+ aims to provide enhanced and advanced capabilities and features for mortgage analysis and reporting.

    The new enhancements of MARS+ include:

  • Eknath Belbase, Laura Silberg, Aidan Loftus, Joni Baker, Sam Sutton, Richard Cooperstein

    Events

    Several AD&Co employees attended SFVegas 2025. This post shares their unique perspectives from attending the conference and key takeaways from the sessions.