Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Why Improving Access to Auto Loans Will Improve Job Stability and Diversity in the WorkforceThoughtsFor many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.
Transportation barriers are among the many obstacles to achieving diversity and inclusion in the workforce. If people can’t get to work, people can’t get jobs. But the inaccessibility of auto loans is too often a barrier.
The solution isn’t as simple as applying for a car loan. Taking out risky, high-interest loans without understanding the terms is a dangerous move for borrowers. The practice might technically improve access to auto loans in the short term, but the long-run picture is bleaker. Predatory lending leads to more auto loan defaults and more barriers to owning vehicles, especially in lower-income brackets.
People work hard to make sure they can meet their financial commitments each month, and I believe there are many areas to improve accessibility when it comes to applying for an auto loan. Businesses that focus on helping borrowers with these areas will reap the benefits of workforce diversity while also doing good in their surrounding communities.
Financial Barriers to Employment
Life is unpredictable, and a stressed financial situation over a consistent period increases the risk of not being able to meet financial commitments. Unexpected costs pop up, resulting in borrowers being unable to meet their payments in already stressed situations. A chain reaction can then occur when a financial burden snowballs into losing a car, a job, or even a home.
Common barriers to employment include homelessness, substance use disorder, long-term welfare dependence, and lack of computer skills. Many companies also run background checks that include credit scores, even though it’s been proven that these models are biased against people who do not have generational wealth.
Even worse, predatory lenders often target the financially disadvantaged. Some lenders are incentivized to give out risky loans with high interest based on imperfect information. These loans are then sold so the originator is no longer responsible for the risk of the loan they originated.
This cycle ultimately leads to less diversity in the workforce. But we can overcome these barriers to employment if we start by resolving one thing at a time, starting with the transportation situation.
3 Necessities to Apply for an Auto Loan
A vehicle can get us back and forth to work, and it can also be a place to live in a pinch while getting things back together. But if someone lacks one of these key aspects of securing an auto loan, they’re likely to experience major barriers in the process:
1. Steady Income
Default rates on auto loans are closely correlated with unemployment. A steady income is becoming more ambiguous with the rise of the gig economy, but a good rule of thumb for borrowers is finding an average income received per month after taxes. If they don’t have a full-time job, they shouldn’t hesitate to take on gigs to earn income.
2. Healthy Credit Score
While some lenders may give borrowers an auto loan despite bad or no credit, a healthy credit score provides borrowers with the best rate. It’s important to remember that dealers are incentivized to give people loans, so borrowers will often feel pressure from salespeople. One way to alleviate that pressure is for borrowers to get preapproved with their bank first to get a better rate based on a clearer picture of their financial situations.
3. Monthly Expenses
It’s important for borrowers to budget and know where their money is going each month. This helps them understand what type of monthly payment they can afford. Personally, I break my spending down into two categories: essential (food, housing, utilities) and nonessential (streaming, cable, etc.). With an idea of how much they’re saving or spending, borrowers can make better financial decisions.
Getting to Work
No qualified job candidate should have to decline a job offer because they can’t afford to commute to work. But businesses can integrate transportation allowances into their hiring and onboarding processes for potential candidates.
At Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc., we are actively researching how to incorporate alternative metrics that can be used to help paint a more accurate picture of a person’s financial history. Some of these include paying rent and cell phone bills consistently on time, which are not included in traditional credit scores. This information can be used by either employers or auto lenders to make better decisions.
The S-Curve Archives
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ThoughtsRecently, aggregators have crossed market borders by issuing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by owner-occupied (OO), GSE-eligible conforming loans. Additionally, conforming mortgage loans have drawn investment interest from insurance companies fronted by aggregators and evaluated by third-party firms. These developments constitute historically rare disintermediations of the nearly monopsonist purchases of conforming loans by the GSEs.
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PodcastJoin Rob Landauer in a conversation with Abe Martin as they discuss his recent Pipeline article, "Modeling the Balance Behavior of HELOC Borrowers." In this episode, they highlight key points from the article as he shares insights into the draw component of HELOCs and provide an update on the beta rele
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News
We’re excited to announce a major addition to the Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) team. Industry leaders Kelli Sayres and Gene Park, known for building and scaling leading fixed-income analytics platforms, have joined AD&Co’s Business Development team.
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ThoughtsBuilding on our earlier research on expanded consumer attributes, AD&Co continues to explore how credit data contributes to modeling delinquency and prepayment risk, which are key drivers of mortgage servicing rights cash flows and valuation.
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EventsAndrew Davidson recently joined NFM Lending’s Greg Sher on the One On One podcast to discuss our recent white paper, “The Impact of Moving Away From the Tri-Merge Standard.”
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EventsAD&Co recently sponsored and attended SFVegas 2026 and Optimal Blue Summit 2026. This post shares the AD&Co team's unique perspectives and key takeaways from attending both conferences.
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NewsAD&Co US Mortgage High Yield Indices
The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) portal, housed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, has been publishing AD&Co’s CRT indices since 2019. These series posted under the overall name of “US Mortgage High-Yield” include total return rates and credit and option-adjusted spreads (crOAS) – a projected return’s spread over Treasury (in the past, Libor). These series are available going back to 2014-end and tiered by CRT initial supports.
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ThoughtsIn July 2025, the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that the government-sponsored entities (the Enterprises or GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, would permit lenders to choose between Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0 credit score models for loans sold to the GSEs. FHFA also stated in a social media post that the tri-merge standard would be maintained for mortgage underwriting. Nevertheless, some mortgage industry stakeholders recommend moving away from the tri-merge standard for GSE mortgages in favor of a single or bi-merge report standard.
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News
As housing faces more climate threats that result in more losses, the insurance program that it sits on is teetering on the brink of collapse. Yet, the home insurance market has three distinct stakeholders that have competing priorities, and today, there is no motivation for a collaborative solution.
Understanding how to strengthen and protect the current structure requires looking at the cost burdens along with the risk for each of those parties.
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ThoughtsThere has been a flurry of activity in the mortgage markets since the 2018 passage of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. This act requires the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA, now known as US Federal Housing) to validate and modernize the credit score models used in the housing finance system. It should be noted that so far, the discourse has been around mortgages sold to the Enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Ginnie Mae has not provided any guidance on their plans to start using new credit score models.