Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
-
The GSEs as Regulated UtilitiesThoughts
In the spring of 2019, National Association of Realtors® (NAR), together with financial-market experts Susan Wachter (Wharton) and Richard Cooperstein (Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.) proposed completing the transition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Enterprises) into market utilities in a publication entitled “A Vision for Enduring Housing Finance Reform.” This work builds on Richard Cooperstein and Andrew Davidson’s 2017 paper, “ Is There a Competitive Equilibrium for the GSEs?”
In NAR’s latest white paper, “GSEs: Their Viability as Public Utilities,” Wachter and Cooperstein expand on several points in their earlier discussion. On January 14, 2021 at 1:30 PM ET, NAR is hosting a webinar open to all interested parties to further explore and discuss these insights.
Why a Utility?
Fannie and Freddie were established by Congress as private companies with a public mission; namely, to support secondary market liquidity and mortgage access at all times, across the entire country, with a special obligation to support underserved markets. The mortgage origination and capital investment markets are highly competitive and efficient, but the guarantor and securitization markets are not. These markets function better with externally imposed standards for quality, consistency, capital adequacy and fairness. Further, scale is required to achieve these goals. These are the characteristics of public utilities.
The common governance structure for utilities is private companies with service obligations and strong regulators that ensure adherence to the mission and to regulate returns. The cost of capital is by far the largest component of the GSE risk fee, so reducing the unsubsidized cost of debt and equity is the most effective way to reduce consumer cost and advance homeownership. Financial theory and 100 years of empirical evidence show that government-granted franchises that operate in limited markets have lower return volatility and thus lower required returns on equity and debt. Indeed, the beta for utility stocks is half that of the S&P 500.
Three requirements for success are: (1) The GSEs curate stable debt markets for interest rate and credit risk and to intermediate most of their risk into these competitive capital markets. (2) A federal backstop on pass-through debt (MBS) and corporate financing for approved activities such as Cash Window operations and non-performing loan buyouts, but not for equity holders or credit risk securities. And (3) A governance structure that balances the tension between regulation, mission and capital markets discipline with a regulator, board, shareholders and management. At this stage, the regulator and operating model are largely in place, it remains to establish a Board that represents shareholders and other constituents, and shareholders.
The S-Curve Archives
-
Thoughts
The growing prevalence of artificial intelligence in the mortgage industry is shining a new light on the human biases that have pervaded the industry since its inception. AI is meant to bring fairness and objectivity to mortgage decisions, but it can’t perform fairly if it was built on an unfair system.
-
Products
The LDM v3.0.2 library adds AutoLDM to the v3.0.1 library.
Key benefits include:
-
EventsWe at Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) are once again thrilled to celebrate Pride Month, especially the contributions of LGBTQ professionals in the field of finance including affordable housing policy and the GSEs. This year, in addition to celebrating, we are also paying increased attention to the challenges that LGBTQ individuals face, particularly around issues of housing. Our pride in our LGBTQ staff and community sits alongside our concern about discriminatory lending practices, including in mortgages. As of February 2021, for the first time, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning (LGBTQ) Americans will be protected from housing discrimination under the Fair Housing Act.
-
News
For several years, AD&Co has tracked the total rate of return (TRR) performance of the GSE CAS and STACR CRT in its U.S. Mortgage High-Yield Indices. The AD&Co Mid-Tier index constitutes a broad market measure of the TRR performance of GSE CRT. The related sub-indices segregate the CRT market into 4 index Tiers by attachment point, reflective of the credit exposure of the various classes of underlying CRT ranging from B to M1.
-
EventsWe at Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) stand in solidarity with the Asian community and speak out against the xenophobic ignorance that has led to increased racist attacks against Asians. We protest against these hate crimes. This is a time to celebrate the richness that we have gained from the diversity of the Asian culture. We pledge to support the heritage that is part of what makes us American.
-
Events
What does it mean to be mentally healthy? The answer is different for everyone. With all the extra anxiety that many of us have experienced since 2020, whether from uncertainty about COVID-19 or from other experiences that may be new to us, it’s important to acknowledge that it’s alright to not feel alright. Fortunately, there are numerous resources that are available locally, nationally, and in some cases through your workplace or benefits package. We might start by finding out what makes us feel better.
-
Products
Today marks the publication of Chris Widman's Quantitative Perspective, a comprehensive article on the newest member of our LoanDynamics suite, the Auto LoanDynamics Model. Auto LDM will be integrated into vendor systems and AD&Co tools, allowing users to perform analysis on auto loan and ABS positions.
-
EventsSince 1970, April 22nd has been the annual day to appreciate our planet and recognize the importance of protecting it. But more and more, we realize that everyday needs to be Earth Day, and that we need to take better care of the place that gives us life.
-
Thoughts
To seek "causes" of poverty in this way is to enter an intellectual dead end because poverty has no causes. Only prosperity has causes. – Jane Jacobs, Activist and Author
-
Events
CRTcast, a new podcast series under Freddie Mac’s Home Starts Here programming, focuses on credit risk transfer (CRT) and it’s three spokes: securities, (re)insurance and mortgage insurance. Freddie Mac leadership together with CRT industry experts cover current and relevant topics.