Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Introducing the Kinetics Multifamily LoanDynamics ModuleProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of Kinetics v1.10, the latest update to AD&Co’s modular platform for running the AD&Co suite of analytics. This update introduces the Multifamily LoanDynamics Module, the newest way to run Multifamily LoanDynamics Model (LDM). Investors, servicers, insurers and lenders can leverage this new module to better understand the prepayment and credit risk of their multifamily mortgage portfolio.
The Multifamily LoanDynamics Module joins MSRKinetics, PoolKinetics, the LoanDynamics Module, and the Auto LoanDynamics Module on the Kinetics platform. With this release, all flavors of LDM (Agency, Non-Agency, Auto, and Multifamily) are supported in Kinetics.
Kinetics v1.10 also includes enhancements to the LoanDynamics Module for single-family mortgages, including support for global tunings, a new Lifetime Results report with metrics such as WAL and lifetime CPR, and integration with the latest version of LDM: v3.0.3 patch 1.
Users can access the Multifamily LoanDynamics Module via the Kinetics desktop application (Windows), a web browser, or integration with the Kinetics REST API. AD&Co can provide a developer kit to those interested in integrating the Kinetics Web Service with their proprietary system.
Ready to schedule a demo of Multifamily LoanDynamics Module? Contact us to get started.
Multifamily LoanDynamics Module Portfolio
Multifamily LoanDynamics Module Custom Prepayment Penalty Points
Multifamily LoanDynamics Module Results
The S-Curve Archives
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of a new monthly report series titled “Specified Pool Prepayment Trends,” which aims at showing market prepayment trends for specified agency pools in support of pay-up analyses by investors, traders, and alike.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce that Polypaths LLC supports AD&Co’s Auto LoanDynamics Model (Auto LDM) providing prepayments, defaults and losses on auto loans and securities.
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EventsThe Structured Finance Association hosted SFVegas 2023 (February 26 - March 1), a broad capital markets conference with thousands of attendees in Las Vegas. Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) was a sponsor focused on the mortgage sector. As we engaged with clients and policy leaders, a few themes emerged: Data, Expanding Access Safely, Ginnie Mae Servicing and Auto Loan Performance.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of the LoanDynamics Module in Kinetics, AD&Co's new modular platform for running AD&Co analytics via a desktop application, web browser, or REST API. The LoanDynamics Module is the latest way to run the LoanDynamics Model, allowing users to perform sensitivity analysis, validation testing, and scenario analysis in a modern, user-friendly application.
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ThoughtsRecently the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced some upcoming changes related to the use of new credit scores, FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “FHFA expects that implementation of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 will be a multiyear effort. Once implemented, lenders will be required to deliver both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores with each loan sold to the Enterprises”.[1] This announcement will impact the entire mortgage ecosystem.
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ThoughtsJanuary is National Mentoring Month which is very appropriate since it coincides with the time when we typically set out our goals and intentions for the New Year. Organizations are embracing mentoring programs and these programs have indeed become a strategic imperative for many. There are many benefits to mentorship and it's easy enough to comprehend. The individuals involved in a mentoring relationship and the organizations that choose to sponsor a mentoring program all are likely to benefit.
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ThoughtsHomeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the history of racial discrimination (it was actually legal to discriminate by race in housing until the Fair Housing Act of 1968), suggests that we have a continuing responsibility to ensure fair access to housing and housing finance.
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ThoughtsDear Friends,
As Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) reaches its 30-year milestone, I reflect on two seemingly contradictory ideas: Firms need experience to guide clients through difficult times but sometimes it is necessary to discard past practices to achieve breakthroughs.
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ThoughtsFor many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.
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Thoughts
As interest rates rise and fewer loans with refinancing incentive remain, other factors are primed to play a larger role in determining prepayment speeds in the coming months (and perhaps years). Turnover, the rate at which people move, is the most cited of these factors. In this blog post, we’ll consider two other potential drivers: curtailments, or partial prepayments, and mortgage payoffs that don’t involve taking out a new loan.