Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
-
Why Improving Access to Auto Loans Will Improve Job Stability and Diversity in the WorkforceThoughtsFor many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.
Transportation barriers are among the many obstacles to achieving diversity and inclusion in the workforce. If people can’t get to work, people can’t get jobs. But the inaccessibility of auto loans is too often a barrier.
The solution isn’t as simple as applying for a car loan. Taking out risky, high-interest loans without understanding the terms is a dangerous move for borrowers. The practice might technically improve access to auto loans in the short term, but the long-run picture is bleaker. Predatory lending leads to more auto loan defaults and more barriers to owning vehicles, especially in lower-income brackets.
People work hard to make sure they can meet their financial commitments each month, and I believe there are many areas to improve accessibility when it comes to applying for an auto loan. Businesses that focus on helping borrowers with these areas will reap the benefits of workforce diversity while also doing good in their surrounding communities.
Financial Barriers to Employment
Life is unpredictable, and a stressed financial situation over a consistent period increases the risk of not being able to meet financial commitments. Unexpected costs pop up, resulting in borrowers being unable to meet their payments in already stressed situations. A chain reaction can then occur when a financial burden snowballs into losing a car, a job, or even a home.
Common barriers to employment include homelessness, substance use disorder, long-term welfare dependence, and lack of computer skills. Many companies also run background checks that include credit scores, even though it’s been proven that these models are biased against people who do not have generational wealth.
Even worse, predatory lenders often target the financially disadvantaged. Some lenders are incentivized to give out risky loans with high interest based on imperfect information. These loans are then sold so the originator is no longer responsible for the risk of the loan they originated.
This cycle ultimately leads to less diversity in the workforce. But we can overcome these barriers to employment if we start by resolving one thing at a time, starting with the transportation situation.
3 Necessities to Apply for an Auto Loan
A vehicle can get us back and forth to work, and it can also be a place to live in a pinch while getting things back together. But if someone lacks one of these key aspects of securing an auto loan, they’re likely to experience major barriers in the process:
1. Steady Income
Default rates on auto loans are closely correlated with unemployment. A steady income is becoming more ambiguous with the rise of the gig economy, but a good rule of thumb for borrowers is finding an average income received per month after taxes. If they don’t have a full-time job, they shouldn’t hesitate to take on gigs to earn income.
2. Healthy Credit Score
While some lenders may give borrowers an auto loan despite bad or no credit, a healthy credit score provides borrowers with the best rate. It’s important to remember that dealers are incentivized to give people loans, so borrowers will often feel pressure from salespeople. One way to alleviate that pressure is for borrowers to get preapproved with their bank first to get a better rate based on a clearer picture of their financial situations.
3. Monthly Expenses
It’s important for borrowers to budget and know where their money is going each month. This helps them understand what type of monthly payment they can afford. Personally, I break my spending down into two categories: essential (food, housing, utilities) and nonessential (streaming, cable, etc.). With an idea of how much they’re saving or spending, borrowers can make better financial decisions.
Getting to Work
No qualified job candidate should have to decline a job offer because they can’t afford to commute to work. But businesses can integrate transportation allowances into their hiring and onboarding processes for potential candidates.
At Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc., we are actively researching how to incorporate alternative metrics that can be used to help paint a more accurate picture of a person’s financial history. Some of these include paying rent and cell phone bills consistently on time, which are not included in traditional credit scores. This information can be used by either employers or auto lenders to make better decisions.
The S-Curve Archives
-
ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of a new monthly report series titled “Specified Pool Prepayment Trends,” which aims at showing market prepayment trends for specified agency pools in support of pay-up analyses by investors, traders, and alike.
-
ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce that Polypaths LLC supports AD&Co’s Auto LoanDynamics Model (Auto LDM) providing prepayments, defaults and losses on auto loans and securities.
-
EventsThe Structured Finance Association hosted SFVegas 2023 (February 26 - March 1), a broad capital markets conference with thousands of attendees in Las Vegas. Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) was a sponsor focused on the mortgage sector. As we engaged with clients and policy leaders, a few themes emerged: Data, Expanding Access Safely, Ginnie Mae Servicing and Auto Loan Performance.
-
ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of the LoanDynamics Module in Kinetics, AD&Co's new modular platform for running AD&Co analytics via a desktop application, web browser, or REST API. The LoanDynamics Module is the latest way to run the LoanDynamics Model, allowing users to perform sensitivity analysis, validation testing, and scenario analysis in a modern, user-friendly application.
-
ThoughtsRecently the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced some upcoming changes related to the use of new credit scores, FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “FHFA expects that implementation of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 will be a multiyear effort. Once implemented, lenders will be required to deliver both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores with each loan sold to the Enterprises”.[1] This announcement will impact the entire mortgage ecosystem.
-
ThoughtsJanuary is National Mentoring Month which is very appropriate since it coincides with the time when we typically set out our goals and intentions for the New Year. Organizations are embracing mentoring programs and these programs have indeed become a strategic imperative for many. There are many benefits to mentorship and it's easy enough to comprehend. The individuals involved in a mentoring relationship and the organizations that choose to sponsor a mentoring program all are likely to benefit.
-
ThoughtsHomeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the history of racial discrimination (it was actually legal to discriminate by race in housing until the Fair Housing Act of 1968), suggests that we have a continuing responsibility to ensure fair access to housing and housing finance.
-
ThoughtsDear Friends,
As Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) reaches its 30-year milestone, I reflect on two seemingly contradictory ideas: Firms need experience to guide clients through difficult times but sometimes it is necessary to discard past practices to achieve breakthroughs.
-
ThoughtsFor many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.
-
Thoughts
As interest rates rise and fewer loans with refinancing incentive remain, other factors are primed to play a larger role in determining prepayment speeds in the coming months (and perhaps years). Turnover, the rate at which people move, is the most cited of these factors. In this blog post, we’ll consider two other potential drivers: curtailments, or partial prepayments, and mortgage payoffs that don’t involve taking out a new loan.