Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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Introducing a New Interface to Navigate Our Website with EaseNews
We proudly launched our new website on November 13th. As you familiarize yourself with the new look of ad-co.com, you will come to know the many new offerings we provide. Along with the new website, we have organized our products as a menu of models and applications for a wide range of investor appetites. Let us review the menu of our product offerings.
Dynamic Models
LoanDynamics (LDM) is the credit modeling solution you need. Our behavioral model helps you manage interest rate and credit risks in single family, multifamily, and auto loans by forecasting prepayments, delinquencies, defaults, and loss probabilities.
RiskValDynamics (RVD) is our flexible valuation engine formerly known as OAS Subroutines. It combines LDM, our suite of MacroDynamics models, and our original, highly-efficient cash-flow engines.
MacroDynamics (MDM) is our suite of macroeconomic models including InterestRateDynamics, HomePriceDynamics, and UnemploymentDynamics.
Applications
Kinetics is our new modular platform, designed to deliver the full suite of our models and analytics with the option to license only the tools you need. LoanKinetics , our multi-functional whole loan application, joins the Kinetics platform, along with MSRKinetics (MSRK), our new web-based offering focused on assessing MSR risk, and PoolKinetics, a module for pay-up valuation of agency pools.
RiskProfiler (RP) is our complete valuation and risk assessment solution that covers all asset classes modeled by AD&Co: MBS and ARM pools, loans and their derivatives (IO, PO, MI, MSR), structured securities (CMOs), and hedge instruments. All inputs and outputs are stored in a SQL database.
We hope the new interface helps you learn more about all that Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. can offer during these unprecedented times.
Happy Holidays and Stay Safe – Ashlea Bonds, Marketing
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Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc.’s LoanDynamics Models Empowers Fite Analytics’ MBS Analytics ServiceNews
Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co), is proud to support Fite Analytics’ innovative cloud-native Mortgage-Backed Securities Analytics Service. The Fite Analytics solution incorporates AD&Co’s LoanDynamics models that provide forecasts of voluntary prepayments, defaults and losses that drive risk analytics across the mortgage-backed securities market with comprehensive coverage. To read the full press release click here.
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Introducing the New AD&Co WebsiteNews
We are thrilled to announce that Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. has launched a new look for ad-co.com. Some of the exciting new features of this site include:
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A dynamic homepage highlighting the firm’s latest innovations, AD&Co client benefits, announcements, and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion efforts.
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Our new blog titled The S-Curve that offers our latest announcements, product updates, and insights on the mortgage market in real time.
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An enhanced solutions-focused structure organized by I Work In (includes industry and investment categories), Tools (product pages), Consulting, Insights (announcements and literature), and Client Portal (downloads portal and model resources).
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About AD&Co includes Our Company and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion sections which offer a look into the firm’s foundation, culture, and practices.
Please take the time to:
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Register to access the new website. You will be prompted to set up a new password.
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Kindly verify your contact information on your User Dashboard. If you need to update your information, please contact us.
Finally, we’ve updated our Terms of Use and Privacy Statement. You will be asked to accept them when you log in for the first time.
Please let us know feedback or concerns to ensure we continue to serve you well. Thank you.
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The S-Curve Archives
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EventsThe Structured Finance Association hosted SFVegas 2023 (February 26 - March 1), a broad capital markets conference with thousands of attendees in Las Vegas. Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) was a sponsor focused on the mortgage sector. As we engaged with clients and policy leaders, a few themes emerged: Data, Expanding Access Safely, Ginnie Mae Servicing and Auto Loan Performance.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of the LoanDynamics Module in Kinetics, AD&Co's new modular platform for running AD&Co analytics via a desktop application, web browser, or REST API. The LoanDynamics Module is the latest way to run the LoanDynamics Model, allowing users to perform sensitivity analysis, validation testing, and scenario analysis in a modern, user-friendly application.
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ThoughtsRecently the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced some upcoming changes related to the use of new credit scores, FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “FHFA expects that implementation of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 will be a multiyear effort. Once implemented, lenders will be required to deliver both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores with each loan sold to the Enterprises”.[1] This announcement will impact the entire mortgage ecosystem.
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ThoughtsJanuary is National Mentoring Month which is very appropriate since it coincides with the time when we typically set out our goals and intentions for the New Year. Organizations are embracing mentoring programs and these programs have indeed become a strategic imperative for many. There are many benefits to mentorship and it's easy enough to comprehend. The individuals involved in a mentoring relationship and the organizations that choose to sponsor a mentoring program all are likely to benefit.
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ThoughtsHomeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the history of racial discrimination (it was actually legal to discriminate by race in housing until the Fair Housing Act of 1968), suggests that we have a continuing responsibility to ensure fair access to housing and housing finance.
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ThoughtsDear Friends,
As Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) reaches its 30-year milestone, I reflect on two seemingly contradictory ideas: Firms need experience to guide clients through difficult times but sometimes it is necessary to discard past practices to achieve breakthroughs.
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ThoughtsFor many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.
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Thoughts
As interest rates rise and fewer loans with refinancing incentive remain, other factors are primed to play a larger role in determining prepayment speeds in the coming months (and perhaps years). Turnover, the rate at which people move, is the most cited of these factors. In this blog post, we’ll consider two other potential drivers: curtailments, or partial prepayments, and mortgage payoffs that don’t involve taking out a new loan.
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Thoughts
Summary
In 2021, Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) proposed a benchmark cohort approach to setting Ability-to-Repay (ATR) Qualified Mortgages (QM) standards. Successful benchmarks based on data are model-free and transparent, and the cohorts must perform consistently in comparison to one another and across time. Our original work used data through the early stages of the pandemic when non-performing loan percentages skyrocketed.
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ThoughtsHow Lowering Capital Costs Affects Higher-Risk Loans
Government-sponsored enterprises (or GSEs) are companies that provide guarantees and financing to originators through the mortgage secondary market. The size and resilience of the GSE secondary market maximizes diversification and liquidity which reduces financial risk and cost of capital. This benefit accrues to conforming borrowers through lower mortgage rates and resiliently available financing.