Welcome to The S-Curve
Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.
The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.
We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.
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AD&Conversations: CIS Pilot ProjectPodcastTune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:
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Helping users become familiar with climate-related casualty data
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Identifying the most suitable scenarios to use
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Determining the best way to visualize the results
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AD&Conversations: CIS Pilot ProjectPodcast
Tune in to our fourth episode of AD&Conversations with Kevin Lin and Eknath Belbase, our product lead for our Climate model. In this episode, they discuss the new Climate Impact Suite (CIS) pilot project, and Belbase outlines several challenges the team is navigating, including:
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Helping users become familiar with climate-related casualty data
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Identifying the most suitable scenarios to use
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Determining the best way to visualize the results
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Andrew Davidson Guest Speaker on Equifax's Market Pulse PodcastPodcast
Andrew Davidson was invited to speak on Equifax's Market Pulse Podcast titled, "Driving Efficiency and Resilience in the Mortgage Industry" live at the 2025 MBA Annual Convention in Las Vegas.
Andy explains how variations in data files can distort risk assessment, creating a dual risk for lenders: extending credit to borrowers more likely to default while overcharging customers whose risk is overstated.
Click here to learn more.
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Policy Perspectives - Housing Market Dynamics and Mortgage RiskThoughtsOur latest Policy Perspective written by Richard Cooperstein offers an analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage finance markets, focusing on key trends and forward-looking risks. While housing markets are not fully efficient, they do respond to economic imbalances which create opportunities and vulnerabilities. This article explores how demographic shifts, credit access, interest rates, and climate risks shape both housing demand and supply.
Key findings include:
- Weak demand fundamentals, especially among new homeowners
- Easing supply shortages and slowing price growth
- Elevated risk of broader housing price declines amid rising recession concerns
- Notable exposure of higher-coupon mortgages and servicing rights to interest rate and credit risks
Cooperstein also assess the resilience of mortgage-related assets under current and projected conditions.
Click here to read now!
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AD&Conversations: Exploring KineticsPodcast
Join Kevin Lin in a conversation with Richard Cooperstein as they dive into Kinetics, AD&Co's modular platform designed to deliver the full power of our models and analytics; with the flexibility to license only the tools you need. In this interview, they unpack insights from Eric Limjoco's recent Pipeline article, "Driving Sharper Insights with the Kinetics Reporting Engine," and share a sneak peek into what's coming with the Kinetics 2.0 release.
As a seasoned internal power user, Richard shares why this upgrade is an innovative enhancement for delivering comprehensive solutions across the mortgage space.
The S-Curve Archives
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EventsThe Data Foundation of Mortgage Finance
Homeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the non-interest cost of financing is always an obstacle for first-time and low-wealth buyers, and underserved populations.
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ThoughtsIn this blog post, we used the recently updated Mortgage Market Statistical Annual to examine the dynamics of residential loan origination by state and by market segments and highlight important trends.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of Kinetics v1.10, the latest update to AD&Co’s modular platform for running the AD&Co suite of analytics. This update introduces the Multifamily LoanDynamics Module, the newest way to run Multifamily LoanDynamics Model (LDM). Investors, servicers, insurers and lenders can leverage this new module to better understand the prepayment and credit risk of their multifamily mortgage portfolio.
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EventsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) held a webinar on June 8th entitled “Lessons Learned: Insights for Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Banks.” Mickey Storms from our Alliances and Policies team, Alex Levin from our Financial Engineering team and Andrew Davidson were featured speakers.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of a new monthly report series titled “Specified Pool Prepayment Trends,” which aims at showing market prepayment trends for specified agency pools in support of pay-up analyses by investors, traders, and alike.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce that Polypaths LLC supports AD&Co’s Auto LoanDynamics Model (Auto LDM) providing prepayments, defaults and losses on auto loans and securities.
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EventsThe Structured Finance Association hosted SFVegas 2023 (February 26 - March 1), a broad capital markets conference with thousands of attendees in Las Vegas. Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) was a sponsor focused on the mortgage sector. As we engaged with clients and policy leaders, a few themes emerged: Data, Expanding Access Safely, Ginnie Mae Servicing and Auto Loan Performance.
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ProductsAndrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of the LoanDynamics Module in Kinetics, AD&Co's new modular platform for running AD&Co analytics via a desktop application, web browser, or REST API. The LoanDynamics Module is the latest way to run the LoanDynamics Model, allowing users to perform sensitivity analysis, validation testing, and scenario analysis in a modern, user-friendly application.
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ThoughtsRecently the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced some upcoming changes related to the use of new credit scores, FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “FHFA expects that implementation of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 will be a multiyear effort. Once implemented, lenders will be required to deliver both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores with each loan sold to the Enterprises”.[1] This announcement will impact the entire mortgage ecosystem.
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ThoughtsJanuary is National Mentoring Month which is very appropriate since it coincides with the time when we typically set out our goals and intentions for the New Year. Organizations are embracing mentoring programs and these programs have indeed become a strategic imperative for many. There are many benefits to mentorship and it's easy enough to comprehend. The individuals involved in a mentoring relationship and the organizations that choose to sponsor a mentoring program all are likely to benefit.