The S-Curve

Welcome to The S-Curve

Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.

The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.

We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.

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Blog - Latest
  • Andrew Davidson Featured on the One On One with Greg Sher

    Joann Gollette

    Events

    Andrew Davidson recently joined NFM Lending’s Greg Sher on the One On One podcast to discuss our recent white paper, “The Impact of Moving Away From the Tri-Merge Standard.”

    In the conversation, Andrew shares insights on the evolving credit score landscape and what these changes could mean for mortgage modeling and risk assessment.

    You can listen to the full discussion here:

Blog - Archives

The S-Curve Archives

  • Mickey Storms, Alex Levin

    Thoughts

    Recently, aggregators have crossed market borders by issuing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by owner-occupied (OO), GSE-eligible conforming loans. Additionally, conforming mortgage loans have drawn investment interest from insurance companies fronted by aggregators and evaluated by third-party firms. These developments constitute historically rare disintermediations of the nearly monopsonist purchases of conforming loans by the GSEs.

  • Rob Landauer, Abe Martin

    Podcast

    Join Rob Landauer in a conversation with Abe Martin as they discuss his recent Pipeline article, "Modeling the Balance Behavior of HELOC Borrowers." In this episode, they highlight key points from the article as he shares insights into the draw component of HELOCs and provide an update on the beta rele

  • Ashlea Bonds

    News

    We’re excited to announce a major addition to the Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) team. Industry leaders Kelli Sayres and Gene Park, known for building and scaling leading fixed-income analytics platforms, have joined AD&Co’s Business Development team.

  • Sanjeeban Chatterjee, Vivian Li, Joni Baker, Richard Cooperstein

    Thoughts

    Building on our earlier research on expanded consumer attributes, AD&Co continues to explore how credit data contributes to modeling delinquency and prepayment risk, which are key drivers of mortgage servicing rights cash flows and valuation.

  • Joann Gollette

    Events

    Andrew Davidson recently joined NFM Lending’s Greg Sher on the One On One podcast to discuss our recent white paper, “The Impact of Moving Away From the Tri-Merge Standard.”

  • Eknath Belbase, Daniel Swanson, Yvonne Chen

    Events

    AD&Co recently sponsored and attended SFVegas 2026 and Optimal Blue Summit 2026. This post shares the AD&Co team's unique perspectives and key takeaways from attending both conferences.

  • Alex Levin

    News

    AD&Co US Mortgage High Yield Indices

    The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) portal, housed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, has been publishing AD&Co’s CRT indices since 2019. These series posted under the overall name of “US Mortgage High-Yield” include total return rates and credit and option-adjusted spreads (crOAS) – a projected return’s spread over Treasury (in the past, Libor). These series are available going back to 2014-end and tiered by CRT initial supports.

  • Joni Baker, Sanjeeban Chatterjee, Richard Cooperstein, Andrew Davidson

    Thoughts

    In July 2025, the US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced that the government-sponsored entities (the Enterprises or GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, would permit lenders to choose between Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0 credit score models for loans sold to the GSEs. FHFA also stated in a social media post that the tri-merge standard would be maintained for mortgage underwriting. Nevertheless, some mortgage industry stakeholders recommend moving away from the tri-merge standard for GSE mortgages in favor of a single or bi-merge report standard.

  • Joann Gollette

    News

    As housing faces more climate threats that result in more losses, the insurance program that it sits on is teetering on the brink of collapse. Yet, the home insurance market has three distinct stakeholders that have competing priorities, and today, there is no motivation for a collaborative solution.

    Understanding how to strengthen and protect the current structure requires looking at the cost burdens along with the risk for each of those parties.

  • Sanjeeban Chatterjee

    Thoughts

    There has been a flurry of activity in the mortgage markets since the 2018 passage of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act. This act requires the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA, now known as US Federal Housing) to validate and modernize the credit score models used in the housing finance system. It should be noted that so far, the discourse has been around mortgages sold to the Enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Ginnie Mae has not provided any guidance on their plans to start using new credit score models.