The S-Curve

Welcome to The S-Curve

Now you will be able to receive the latest announcements, product updates, and our insights on the mortgage market in real time.

The name of the blog, the S-Curve, is a reflection of our logo and the central feature of our prepayment model. S-curves are seen in nature in many phenomenon, from population growth to prepayment and default models. Our first S-curve, in the early 1990s, used the arctangent function, then piece-wise linear functions, and evolved over time to be more complex and vary by FICO, loan size and LTV. This evolution encapsulates both the timeless nature of fundamental relationships and constant innovation to describe them better over time.

We hope you find the information useful and we look forward to your feedback.

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Blog - Latest
  • Asian Pacific Heritage Month

    AD&Co Marketing Team

    Events

    Asian Pacific Heritage Month

    We at Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) stand in solidarity with the Asian community and speak out against the xenophobic ignorance that has led to increased racist attacks against Asians. We protest against these hate crimes. This is a time to celebrate the richness that we have gained from the diversity of the Asian culture. We pledge to support the heritage that is part of what makes us American. 

  • Mental Health Awareness Month

    AD&Co Marketing Team

    Events

    What does it mean to be mentally healthy? The answer is different for everyone. With all the extra anxiety that many of us have experienced since 2020, whether from uncertainty about COVID-19 or from other experiences that may be new to us, it’s important to acknowledge that it’s alright to not feel alright. Fortunately, there are numerous resources that are available locally, nationally, and in some cases through your workplace or benefits package. We might start by finding out what makes us feel better. For some, it is a brisk walk outside, a yoga class, talking to a friend, or finding a sympathetic therapist. The possibilities are endless. Let’s take this month to think about what WE need.

  • Introducing AutoLDM—A New Way to Analyze Auto Loans

    AD&Co Marketing Team

    Products

    Today marks the publication of Chris Widman's Quantitative Perspective, a comprehensive article on the newest member of our LoanDynamics suite, the Auto LoanDynamics Model. Auto LDM will be integrated into vendor systems and AD&Co tools, allowing users to perform analysis on auto loan and ABS positions. Applications include economic scenario analysis to examine the impact of unemployment scenarios or rates on defaults, losses and prepayments, stress testing for CCAR/CECL, valuation and risk measurement.

    The article provides an overview of the auto loan market, discusses the underlying data used for estimation, our model architecture, and contains sections on delinquency, seasonality, unemployment and severity determinants. We look forward to your feedback – please reach out to us at support@ad-co.com if you are interested in more details or a trial.

    -Eknath Belbase

  • The Earth is Our Home: Let's Not Default on it

    AD&Co Marketing Team

    Events

    Earth Day

    Since 1970, April 22nd has been the annual day to appreciate our planet and recognize the importance of protecting it.  But more and more, we realize that everyday needs to be Earth Day, and that we need to take better care of the place that gives us life. It’s becoming harder and harder to doubt the legitimacy of climate change, and how we as humans contribute it.  At Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) we recognize the dramatic nature of climate change and how it effects our neighbors around the world. As experts in the mortgage market, we’re looking at the ways extreme weather, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, and melting glaciers, affects people’s homes, their way of life—and the availability and price of housing.

    In our December 2020 Pipeline article we anticipated an increasing expectation on the need to measure and disclose exposure to climate change, and laid out some of the analytic challenges. We have focused on studying the existing research, reaching out to climate risk research firms, and understanding the landscape of what is available and what needs to be developed. As we explore different product ideas, we expect to reach out to our existing clients to help us understand better the ways we can continue to deliver leading-edge analytics in this space.

    For additional information, check out this panel featuring AD&Co’s Eknath Belbase. 

  • Diversity Awareness Lifts all People

    AD&Co Marketing Team

    Thoughts

    To seek "causes" of poverty in this way is to enter an intellectual dead end because poverty has no causes. Only prosperity has causes. – Jane Jacobs, Activist and Author

    Here at Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) we have been aware since our founding in 1992 that diversity of all kinds makes for a more interesting culture, a better exchange of ideas, and ultimately better products and services. However, for all of us, globally and in the U.S., there is still a long way to go. We are focused on increasing our sensitivity to diversity and unconscious bias and have made diversity outreach in recruiting, mentorship, vendors, charitable giving—indeed, in every aspect of our business a priority. We have been focused on the fact that every person deserves an equitable life. Our guiding principle is that we are all people and we all deserve to be treated equally. 

    This is especially relevant to issues of housing as AD&Co’s Richard Cooperstein has addressed in the article he co-authored with Ken Fears from the National Association of Realtors (NARS) and Susan Wachter of the Wharton School for Business, University of Pennsylvania, Government-Sponsored Enterprises: Their Viability as Public Utilities published in the journal “Housing Policy Debate,” Volume 31, 2021 - Issue 1: The Mortgage Market in the Time of COVID / Smart Cities, Housing, and Community Development Policy.

Blog - Archives

The S-Curve Archives

  • Mickey Storms

    Events

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) held a webinar on June 8th entitled “Lessons Learned: Insights for Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Banks.” Mickey Storms from our Alliances and Policies team, Alex Levin from our Financial Engineering team and Andrew Davidson were featured speakers.

  • Hikmet Senay

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the beta release of a new monthly report series titled “Specified Pool Prepayment Trends,” which aims at showing market prepayment trends for specified agency pools in support of pay-up analyses by investors, traders, and alike.

  • Michelle Stepien Breier

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce that Polypaths LLC supports AD&Co’s Auto LoanDynamics Model (Auto LDM) providing prepayments, defaults and losses on auto loans and securities.

  • Richard Cooperstein

    Events

    The Structured Finance Association hosted SFVegas 2023 (February 26 - March 1), a broad capital markets conference with thousands of attendees in Las Vegas.  Andrew Davidson & Co. Inc. (AD&Co) was a sponsor focused on the mortgage sector.  As we engaged with clients and policy leaders, a few themes emerged: Data, Expanding Access Safely, Ginnie Mae Servicing and Auto Loan Performance.

  • Eric Limjoco

    Products

    Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc (AD&Co) is pleased to announce the official release of the LoanDynamics Module in Kinetics, AD&Co's new modular platform for running AD&Co analytics via a desktop application, web browser, or REST API. The LoanDynamics Module is the latest way to run the LoanDynamics Model, allowing users to perform sensitivity analysis, validation testing, and scenario analysis in a modern, user-friendly application.

  • Sanjeeban Chatterjee

    Thoughts

    Recently the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced some upcoming changes related to the use of new credit scores, FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “FHFA expects that implementation of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 will be a multiyear effort. Once implemented, lenders will be required to deliver both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores with each loan sold to the Enterprises”.[1] This announcement will impact the entire mortgage ecosystem.

  • Adam Marchuck

    Thoughts

    January is National Mentoring Month which is very appropriate since it coincides with the time when we typically set out our goals and intentions for the New Year. Organizations are embracing mentoring programs and these programs have indeed become a strategic imperative for many. There are many benefits to mentorship and it's easy enough to comprehend. The individuals involved in a mentoring relationship and the organizations that choose to sponsor a mentoring program all are likely to benefit.

  • Richard Cooperstein

    Thoughts

    Homeownership is the largest source of wealth accumulation and inter-generational wealth transfer for the working and middle class. However, the history of racial discrimination (it was actually legal to discriminate by race in housing until the Fair Housing Act of 1968), suggests that we have a continuing responsibility to ensure fair access to housing and housing finance. 

  • Andrew Davidson

    Thoughts

    Dear Friends,

    As Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co) reaches its 30-year milestone, I reflect on two seemingly contradictory ideas:  Firms need experience to guide clients through difficult times but sometimes it is necessary to discard past practices to achieve breakthroughs. 

  • Connor Campbell

    Thoughts

    For many people, having accessible transportation (a car, for example) is necessary. Most U.S. people live in areas without adequate public transportation and require vehicles to access jobs, healthcare, and groceries.